Kommer Putin att ingripa militärt i Belarus? Den frågan återkommer ständigt. Och på åskilliga ställen vill man dra paralleller till utvecklingen i Ukraina 2014.

Men Belarus är inte Ukraina. Och denna utveckling är annorlunda. […]

Här handlar det inte om landets externa orientering, utan om dess interna situation med en repressiv ledare som efter 26 år vid makten förlorat kontakten med det mesta.

Det är en revolution där den klassiska vit-röd-vita flagga som under Lukashenko-tiden är förbjuden är helt dominerande. Och inga andra flaggor har faktiskt synts till.

I Kreml skyr man förvisso s k färgade revolutioner. Men det är inte så att man regelmässigt sänt stridsvagnar för att krossa dem.

Jag har på twitter sagt att vi kanske skulle se på mönstret från Armenien snarare än på mönstret från Ukraina.

Den demokratiska revolutionen i Armenien våren 2018 tvingade bort en president som länge varit en nära partner också till Moskva. Men landets utrikes- och säkerhetspolitiska orientering ifrågasattes inte. Armenien stannade kvar i Putins euroasiatiska union, och den ryska militära närvaron alldeles i utkanten av huvudstaden Yerevan ifrågasattes inte heller. Läs artikel

The two presidents further discussed the situation that has developed following the presidential election in Belarus including with due regard to external pressure. The Russian side reaffirmed its readiness to render the necessary assistance to resolve the challenges facing Belarus based on the principles of the Treaty on the Creation of a Union State, as well as through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, if necessary. Läs pressmeddelande

Anm : Den organisation för kollektiv säkerhet som anges återges här:

Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)

is currently made up of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan.

The Organisation’s objectives are strengthening peace, international and regional security and stability, and the collective protection of freedom, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of its member-states, to be achieved first and foremost through political means.

On May 15, 1992, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan signed the Tashkent Collective Security Treaty (CST). Azerbaijan signed the treaty on September 24, 1993, Georgia on September 9, 1993, and Belarus on December 31, 1993.

The treaty entered into force on April 20, 1994 for a term of five years, with the possibility of an extension. On April 2, 1999, the presidents of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan signed a protocol to extend the treaty for further five years. However, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan declined the treaty extension.

It was decided at the Moscow session of the CST on May 14, 2002, to convert the CST into a full-fledged international organisation: the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

On December 2, 2004, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution granting the CSTO observer status. Läs avtalet

America seizing cargoes from four oil tankers conjures images of British privateers attacking Spanish treasure fleets in the late 1500s.

It was definitely the 21st century when I went to sleep Thursday night, but by Friday morning it was starting to feel as though I’d slipped back in time a few hundred years, to an age of state-sponsored piracy.

News that the U.S. had seized the cargoes of four oil tankers, allegedly carrying Iranian gasoline from the Persian Gulf to Venezuela, conjured images of British privateers — in essence, state-sponsored pirates — attacking Spanish treasure fleets carrying gold, silver and precious stones from the New World back to Europe in the 16th and 17th centuries. […]

The U.S. isn’t licensing acts of piracy by private individuals. Nor, in this case, has it resorted to military action. A senior U.S. official told The Associated Press that no military force was used in the seizures. Instead, threats of potentially crippling sanctions against the owners, insurers and captains of the vessels persuaded them to hand over the cargoes.

But the concept has altered little in 440 years — we still have one of the world’s preeminent naval powers passing its own laws allowing it to seize treasure from its enemies in the ocean. […]

Senior Trump administration officials are expected to hold an event to mark the docking of the ships in Houston. I couldn’t help but think of Queen Elizabeth I staging a banquet for Francis Drake in Deptford on the River Thames in 1581, and knighting him on the main deck of his ship, the Golden Hind, that had just returned full of Spanish treasure. Läs artikel

Pressen på Belarus president Aleksandr Lukasjenko växer för var dag, och på lördag kontaktade han Rysslands president Vladimir Putin i något som verkade som en vädjan på hjälp. Samtidigt planerar den belarusiska oppositionen en massiv demonstration på söndag.

– Aggressionen mot Belarus utvecklar sig. Vi måste kontakta Rysslands president Putin, så jag kan tala med honom nu. För hotet gäller inte längre endast Belarus, sa president Lukasjenko till sina tjänstemän i ett tv-sänt möte på lördag.

Ryssland bekräftade senare under eftermiddagen att presidenterna hade diskuterat läget över telefon, men var i övrigt fåordig om mötet.

– De här problemen borde inte utnyttjas av destruktiva krafter, som vill skada våra två länders ömsesidigt gynnsamma samarbete i statsförbundet, skriver Kreml i ett uttalande.

Båda presidenterna uppgav sig vara säkra på att Belarus problem kommer att ”lösa sig inom kort”. Läs artikel

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has signed a new defence agreement with Poland that will see American troops redeployed there from Germany.

The deal will see the number of US troops in Poland rise to about 5,500. Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said the number could quickly be increased to 20,000 if a threat justified it. US President Donald Trump has previously accused Germany of not contributing enough to Nato. But the US move has raised concern among Nato allies worried over possible Russian expansionism.

The Enhanced Defence Co-operation Agreement (EDCA) was signed by Mr Pompeo and Mr Blaszczak in Warsaw on Saturday.

”This is going to be an extended guarantee – a guarantee that in case of a threat our soldiers are going to stand arm-in-arm,” Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said at the signing ceremony. Läs artikel

USA kommer nästa vecka att försöka tvinga igenom att FN-sanktioner mot Iran återinförs, meddelar president Donald Trump på en presskonferens på sin golfklubb Bedminster i New Jersey.

Beskedet kommer sedan länderna i FN:s säkerhetsråd i fredags avvisat ett förslag från USA om att på obestämd tid förlänga ett vapenembargo mot Iran.

– Vi kommer att genomföra en ”snapback”. Ni kommer att få se en sådan nästa vecka, säger presidenten.

Med det hänvisar han till en klausul som innebär att sanktioner kan återinföras mot Iran om landet anses ha brutit mot det kärnenergiavtal som slöts 2015. Trump hävdar att USA fortfarande är en part i avtalet, trots att han 2018 beslutade att landet skulle dra sig ur överenskommelsen. Läs artikel

The UN Security Council on Friday rejected the United States’ calls for an indefinite extension to the arms embargo on Iran.

Shortly after the result of the council’s vote was announced, China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun said the outcome ”once again shows that unilateralism receives no support, and bullying will fail.”

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the rebuff, saying in a statement, ”The Security Council’s failure to act decisively in defense of international peace and security is inexcusable.” In a tweet, Pompeo accused the UN of enabling Iran’s arms deals.[…]

The US-sponsored resolution was opposed by China and Russia. Eleven members abstained, including Germany, France and Britain, while the US and the Dominican Republic were the only members to back the proposal. To get approval, the resolution needed nine ”yes” votes. The embargo on Iran is set to end in October this year, under a provision of UN Resolution 2231, in which the Security Council backed the nuclear deal between Tehran and a group of world powers. The five permanent members of the Security Council — the US, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China — all endorsed the agreement in Vienna in 2015. Germany and the European Union also signed the landmark deal. Läs artikel

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday condemned the United Nations Security Council for rejecting a U.S. resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran.

The council voted to allow the 13-year embargo to expire this October despite the protestations of the U.S., Israel and multiple Arab states. […]

Russia and China — two permanent members of the Security Council — had opposed the push for an indefinite extension. The Russian delegation asserted an extension would violate a UNSC resolution that endorsed the Iran nuclear deal. It argued the U.S. forfeited its right to negotiate the terms of an arms embargo under that resolution because it left the nuclear deal in 2018. […]

France, Germany and the United Kingdom had also pushed back on a U.S. threat to impose sanctions on Iran if the Security Council voted to let the embargo expire. The U.S. negotiated the right to do so under the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. But the European countries argued the U.S. was not in a position to use the so-called snapback option after withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. Läs artikel