[…] Just recently Russia tried a good but very old method of psychological warfare. It widely publicised how many quarts of human blood of different types was being sent to the ‘war front’ as mass casualties could be expected if it were to decide to invade Ukraine. It was a loud message that Russia was preparing for war if the redlines it had established were breached by NATO. […]
What the world must be careful about is egging by external interest groups, prime among them being the Chinese. No one benefits from such a potential war than China. It will make the Russians dependent on it and will delay all grandiose US plans to rebalance to contain China in the Indo Pacific. In fact, NATO should actually help the Russians to take the right decision; and the right decision is – No War, while it may also mean No Peace. That is something we in India are quite used to. […]
What’s for India, in all this? The problem is choice; who will we support in an extended standoff if it continues. In 2014 the Russians thanked India although all India did was to keep silent. However, the US and NATO may wish for definitive Indian support for their stance. Silence in such circumstances is a difficult proposition and an urging towards peace and ways to find it would be a better Indian policy. In fact, going a step beyond and offering its good offices for an impartial diplomatic initiative to stabilise the situation could be far better.
India has that capability to play peacemaker on the larger diplomatic canvas and this is as good an opportunity as ever to undertake that initiative. What India definitely does not want is to lose traction of the progressively cementing Indo-US strategic partnership. Neither does it wish to see Russia far closer to China. The latter could well embolden China to continue with its coercive strategy against India at the northern borders. Läs artikel