Marlene Laruelle (“Lessons from a Year of War“), Anatol Lieven (“The Balance of the War“), Nicolai N. Petro (“Cold War Realism: Lessons from Ukraine“), Katrina vanden Heuvel and James W. Carden (“Why Not Diplomacy?“).
Marlene Laurelle, Sobering Lessons from a Year of War
[…] But outside of these two successes, the picture looks pretty grim. The humanitarian cost of the war for Ukraine is high (8 million externally displaced, 6 internally displaced, several million people in need of humanitarian assistance, and at least 100,000 to 150,000 killed, including both military and civilians). The reconstruction of the country will be of an incommensurable scale, estimated at around USD 600 billion so far, and while it could be a unique opportunity for a new Ukraine to emerge, it could also become a quagmire both logistically and financially.
Contrary to Western expectations, Russia is down but far from out. It has been able to reinvent itself amidst the sanctions, both by bypassing them through third-parties and updating old Soviet traditions of dealing with a culture of ‘deficit,’ i.e. inventing informal ways to find spare pieces or medications, blending technological parts from different countries and different ages to make things work, and increasing domestic capacities of production.The impact of sanctions will be raising in 2023, and it remains to be seen how the country will deal with them in the medium and long term. […]
The ramifications of the war will be with us for a long time and prove a massive challenge to Europe’s future.
Anatol Lievven, The Balance of the War
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has proved a disaster for both countries, and Vladimir Putin should take responsibility for this and announce that he will not stand for re-election in 2024. Ukraine has suffered massive damage, which cannot begin to be remedied until the fighting comes to an end. Both Ukraine and Russia have suffered huge military casualties, and Ukraine and the Russian-controlled area of the Donbas have suffered substantial civilian casualties. […]
Perhaps worst of all for both Russia and Ukraine has been the damage to culture and intellectual life due to the war and increased domestic repression. Censorship is approaching Soviet levels. Teachers and students are terrified of expressing their opinions. Millions of young Ukrainians have become refugees, and in most cases are unlikely ever to return. The loss of people to Russia is not so great, but includes hundreds of thousands of young men whom Russia can ill afford to lose. Independent culture has been stifled, and numerous Russian cultural figures have fled into exile rather than be forced into public statements supporting the war. Läs artikel