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Realist thinking in International Relations stresses the importance of preserving state sovereignty, national security, international stability, and great power status. In the world of Westphalia-founded sovereign states, realism is a system of ideas upon which nations base their unity and survival even as they engage in complex international and global transactions. In a Russia that, over the last century, has gone from autocracy to communism, liberalism, and back to semi-autocratic ideas, realism has served to navigate the state through an increasingly unstable international environment and has remained an important part of the country’s national identity. Understanding where Russian realistsstand with respect to the war in Ukraine is essential for understanding Russia’s future relations with the outside world, both western and non-western.

In this paper, I present several arguments about Russian realism. First, most realist-minded experts and scholars support the Kremlin by viewing the war as a global confrontation with the West rather than merely a regional conflict. While NATO avoids being perceived as in direct military conflict with Russia, Russian realistsassess the potential of such escalation as relatively high. Second, Russian realistsare largely committed to the idea of preserving state sovereignty and security in the face of the West’s pressures rather than building a new empire at the expense of the Ukrainian ethnicity and statehood, let alone other states and nationalities. Building an empire is not in their system of values if it undermines rather than increases the state security in the international system. Läs artikel

Han visste att det är världens största hangarfartyg. Att 5 000 människor bor och arbetar på det. Att det är byggt för att klara att ligga ute till sjöss i över ett halvår och har gym, bibliotek och ett Starbucks-kafé. Ändå kan man nog säga att kommendörkapten Carl-Christer Drangel baxnade när han anslöt sig till till besättningen på USS Gerald R. Ford i Halifax i slutet av oktober.

– Bara att lära sig hitta var ett kapitel för sig – fartyget är drygt tre fotbollsplaner långt och 25 våningar högt, berättar han, nyss hemkommen från den knappt tre veckor långa resan.

Men det var förstås inte för att imponera som amerikanerna hade bjudit in Carl-Christer Drangel som en av fem svenska officerare att följa med på resan över Atlanten. I stället var det ett slags studiebesök och ett steg mot målet att bygga ett svenskt Nato-integrerat sjö-buret luft- och missilförsvar.

– Vi var med för att lära oss konceptet och hur vi ansluter till en multinationell så kallad carrier strike group. Men också för att dela med oss av våra kunskaper.

Namnet carrier strike group antyder att det rör sig om fler båtar än det jättelika hangarfartyget, för bland annat närskydd och underrättelser och för offensiva operationer. Carl-Christer Drangel förklarar att hela ”strike group:en” snarast är att jämföra med en flygbas på land med skillnaden att den är rörlig och betydligt större. Ombord finns fler än 75 flygplan och helikoptrar vilket är i paritet med hela svenska flygvapnet. Läs pressmeddelande

[…] Vi som gjorde lumpen under kalla kriget accepterade att vi utgjorde en dämpande buffert mellan öst och väst; och det verkade fungera. Så länge som Sverige och Finland inte var med i Nato förblev Ryssland lugnt i vår del av världen.

Alla politiska partier verkade överens om denna lösning under decennier. Ett alliansfritt och neutralt Sverige utgjorde en fungerande buffert och gav stabilitet och fred i regionen.

Hur kan det då komma sig att när det nu i år smäller till i en Rysslandsbuffert, det vill säga Ukraina, är plötsligt i princip hela riksdagen för att Sverige ska lämna denna välfungerande buffertlösning och välja sida?

Hur kan det komma sig att vi vill spela ett så farligt spel? Man kan ju undra hur det skulle bli om vi hade en folkomröstning i frågan. Är verkligen det svenska folket lika övertygat. som riksdagen är, att ett Natomedlemskap minskar faran för oss?

Hur kan det komma sig att vi vill överge den krigsdämpande strategin som fungerat i decennier bara för att Rysslands president återigen anfaller en nära granne, utan att vi ens diskuterat frågan grundligt publikt med svenska folket?

Trots att det numera är i elfte timmen borde Sverige genomföra en folkomröstning om Natomedlemskap. Om svaret blir nej ska vi dra tillbaka den ansökan som vi alltför hastigt skickat in. Läs artikel

Pope Francis on Sunday appealed for an end to the “senseless” war in Ukraine, in his traditional Christmas message from St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican.

The 86-year-old also warned the 10-month-old conflict was aggravating food shortages around the world, urging an end to the use of “food as a weapon”.

The head of the Catholic Church addressed thousands of faithful gathered in St Peter’s Square, some of them holding Ukrainian flags, before delivering the “Urbi et Orbi” blessing (“to the city and the world”).

He has repeatedly called for peace ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, condemning the war but seeking to maintain a delicate dialogue with Moscow.

In his address from the central balcony of St Peter’s, he recalled: “our Ukrainian brothers and sisters who are experiencing this Christmas in the dark and cold, far from their homes”. “May the Lord inspire us to offer concrete gestures of solidarity to assist all those who are suffering, and may he enlighten the minds of those who have the power to silence the thunder of weapons and put an immediate end to this senseless war!” Läs artikel

Utenriksdepartementet skal ha meddelt Russlands ambassade i Norge at de kun tillater at deler av et forskningstokt med forskningsfartøyet «Dalnie Zelentsy» gjennomføres. Det er Dagbladet som skriver dette.

Spørsmålet har vært gjenstand for offentlig debatt, og Venstre har bedt regjeringen avslå søknaden, mens Høyre har advart regjeringen mot å være naive.

Tillatelsen gjelder for den delen av forskningstoktet som finner sted utenfor norsk territorialfarvann. Russland nektes å gjennomføre den delen av forskningstoktet som skulle finne sted ved territorialfarvannet til Svalbard. De nektes også å la skipet ta sedimentære bunnprøver på norsk kontinentalsokkel, skriver avisen.

Statssekretær Eivind Vad Petersson (Ap) ved Utenriksdepartementet opplyser at søknaden er behandlet i tråd med havretten, som gir Norge rett til å nekte havforskning innenfor territorialfarvannet. Läs artikel

Serbiska väpnade styrkor vid gränsen till Kosovo har försatts i högsta beredskap, enligt ett uttalande från landets försvarsminister Milos Vucevic. […]

Tidigare på måndagen uppgav den Nato-ledda fredsbevarande insatsen, Kfor, att man utredde en skjutning som ska ha skett i de norra delarna av Kosovo.

Skjutningen ska ha inträffat i staden Zubin Potok där lokala etniska serber har bemannat vägbarrikader de senaste veckorna och läget har varit spänt. Läs artikel

[…] Secretary Blinken:   Our focus is on continuing to do what we’ve been doing, which is to make sure that Ukraine has in its hands what it needs to defend itself, what it needs to push  back against the Russian aggression, to take back territory that’s been seized from it since February 24th, to make sure as well that it has the support economically and on a humanitarian basis to withstand what’s happening in the country every single day.  That’s our focus.

Mr Murray:  And let’s talk about the Ukrainian objective for right now.  I think a few months ago, if I remember right, I heard you and Jake Sullivan were talking at that point that part of what needed to happen for the Ukrainians was to get as much land as possible before the winter arrived to try to maximize their position on the battlefield.  So winter is now here.  The Ukrainians obviously have made great gains.  From here on out, what’s the Ukrainian objective ultimately in terms of territory?  Is it really realistic to think about the Ukrainians pushing back in Crimea?  What do you – where are they right now?

Blinken:  The first and most important thing is this:  As the President has said consistently, for us the number one principle is nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.  And that means that fundamentally Ukrainians are making the decisions about where they want to go – where they want to go, when they want to get there, how they want to do it, but with our support and the support of dozens of countries around the world.

To flip the question for a second, let’s look at what Russia has been trying to do because that will also tell you where Ukraine is trying to go.  First, Russia tried to, in effect, erase Ukraine’s identity as an independent country, to subsume it back into Russia.  That was Putin’s self-described number one objective.  That’s failed and it won’t succeed.  Then they engaged in a land grab to get as much as they could in eastern and southern Ukraine.  That, too, is now failing, as we’ve seen the Ukrainians since the summer push back in an increasingly effective way.

So the current objective is to take the war to the Ukrainian people.  Putin is directing his ire and his fire at Ukrainian civilians, trying to take out the energy infrastructure, to turn off the heat, the water, the lights, especially as Ukraine heads into winter.  So the primary challenge now for Ukraine is to resist that and of course to continue what they’re doing, which is to get back the land that’s been seized from them.

Murray:  — the support in America, I think, has been strong.  I think the administration is happy with the strength of that support.  The alliance has held together well, as we’ll discuss.  But when you – when you indicate the Ukrainians can – are really the ones to set the agenda, does that suggest open-ended U.S. commitment for Ukraine no matter where they want to go, even if that means going to Ukraine?  Can we afford and support to do that?  Or realistically is there some limit here, and do the Ukrainians know that?

Blinken:  Fundamentally they have to make these decisions and they have to make sure that they’re making informed decisions based on what their capacity is, what it can be, to achieve their objectives.  But it’s fundamentally up to the Ukrainians.  We’re committed to supporting them.  Not just us.  I just —

Murray:  And up to the end of wherever they want to take it, you’re —

Blinken:  Look, I just came back from NATO meetings in Romania and before – and on the margins of that, the G7 meetings.  The President of course has had many.  And I can tell you that the commitment to Ukraine, to helping Ukraine defend itself, to helping Ukraine deal with the Russian aggression, to helping Ukraine get back territory that was seized from it, to supporting it on a humanitarian basis, to support it economically – that commitment is strong, it’s robust, and it’s Europe, and it’s countries well beyond Europe, too. Läs intervjun

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Sveriges utrikesminister Tobias Billström meddelade att hans land hade återlämnat 3 eftersökta män till Turkiet, inom ramen för trepartspromemorian om dess anslutning med Finland till Nordatlantiska Fördragsorganisationen (NATO).

Bilstrom sa – i en intervju med den turkiska Anadolu Agency – att Sverige har återlämnat 3 eftersökta personer till Turkiet, inom ramen för trepartsmemorandumet om dess anslutning till Nato, och att man kommer att vidta rättsliga åtgärder så snart bevis och dokument relaterade till medlemmar i Gulen-organisationerna och PKK eller andra organisationer avslöjas.

Han tillade att de konstitutionella ändringarna som godkänts av hans land inom ramen för trepartsmemorandumet kommer att träda i kraft i början av januari.

Han påpekade att de tidigare nämnda författningsändringarna kriminaliserar att gå med i en terroristorganisation, stödja den eller begära dess stöd. Han tillade att regeringen kommer att lägga fram för parlamentet den 7 mars ett lagförslag om ändring av strafflagen, för att kriminalisera identifiering och främjande av terroristaktiviteter och viftande av terroristorganisationers flaggor.

Han tillade att de konstitutionella ändringarna som godkänts av hans land inom ramen för trepartsmemorandumet kommer att träda i kraft i början av januari. Läs artikel

India’s pragmatic policy of principled neutrality towards the Ukrainian conflict is responsible for turbocharging its rise as a globally significant great power. Delhi’s approach is one whereby it neither supports nor opposes any party to what’s indisputably evolved into a Russian-NATO proxy war in that former Soviet Republic. In practice, this has seen it comprehensively expand economic ties with Russia in parallel with retaining military ones with the U.S. while providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine. […]

Taken together with Jean-Pierre’s praise of India’s role at the G20 several weeks prior, it can be concluded that the U.S. is begrudgingly recognizing that its plot to coerce India into unilaterally conceding on its objective national interests by distancing itself from Russia has completely failed. There was never any credible chance that it would succeed in the first place, since India practices a truly independent foreign policy, yet American strategists ignored this objective observation until only recently. Läs artikel

ABC Nyheter møter 54 år gamle Tormod Heier i lokalene til Forsvarets høgskole på Akershus festning i Oslo sentrum. Professoren i militær strategi og forskningslederen ved Stabsskolen har hatt et hektisk år, hvor han nærmest ble kjent for Norges befolkning over natta etter Russlands invasjon av Ukraina 24. februar.

Heier har vært blant ekspertene som har vært mest i mediene, og utspillene hans har til tider blitt kritisert […]

Heier forteller at det som har overrasket han mest med krigen er at Russlands president Vladimir Putin i det hele tatt valgte å gå til krig. Grunnen til at det overrasket Heier er fordi russerne gikk til krig med 190.000 soldater, som ble spredt på tre forskjellige frontavsnitt. Heier mener den russiske invasjonen var naiv.

– Samtidig hadde Ukraina 250.000 soldater, og en militær tommelfingerregel, enten man bor i Moskva eller i Oslo, er at man helst bør være tre ganger så mange soldater når man angriper et annet land. Og når Ukraina hadde 250.000, så burde russerne hatt 750.000 soldater. De manglet litt over en halv million, det var derfor jeg trodde at Putin aldri i verden ville være så dum at han ville ende opp i en hengemyr i Europas nest største land, samt risikere å få USA og et samlet Vesten på nakken. […]

54-åringen har en variert bakgrunn, og har blant annet tjenestegjort i Afghanistan.

– Det var en lærerik opplevelse, men jeg kom hjem som en desillusjonert offiser. Etter hvert valgte jeg å slutte i Forsvaret, fordi jeg mente den måten vi førte krig på gjorde bare vondt verre.

Siden 2009 har Heier vært tilknyttet Forsvarets høgskole. Tidligere har han blant annet jobbet i Etterretningstjenesten og Forsvarsdepartementet. […]

– Anser du deg selv som kontroversiell?

Heier tenker seg om og drar på svaret i mange sekunder før han svarer:

– Jeg tror enkelte vil se på meg som kontroversiell. Det er veldig mange i dette landet som er opptatt av å ikke kritisere USA og Nato. I tillegg er vi veldig opptatt av å kritisere Russland. Jeg har satt som et mål i seg selv å bare komme opp med ulike perspektiver. Hvis det er mange perspektiver som bare går i retning for USA og Nato og anti-Russland, så er det ett poeng i seg selv å få frem andre sider av saken også. Dette er et fagfelt hvor det ikke er to streker under svaret, svarer en svært engasjert Heier. Läs  intervjun

Gunshots were fired in an area in northern Kosovo where NATO troops were patrolling on Sunday, officials with the trans-Atlantic military alliance said.

While no injuries were reported, the incident comes at a time of heightened ethnic tensions in the region between local Serbs and Kosovar authorities. The spat initially began over Kosovo banning Serbian license plates.

NATO’s mission in Kosovo, KFOR, confirmed that shots were fired in the area of Zubin Potok, close to the border with Serbia.

KFOR said in a statement that the NATO patrol vehicle was undamaged and there were no injuries. Further details on the shooting were unclear. NATO did not comment on where the shots came from. NATO has bolstered its presence in northern Kosovo to maintain the fragile peace, with over 3,700 troops in the country.

Earlier on Sunday, some Serbian media reported that ”fighting” had broken out after Kosovar authorities attempted to dismantle a barricade erected by local Serbs. Läs artikel

On December 7, the European Commission proposed a new sanctions package to coerce Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. After the previous eight sanctions packages, the costs of the sanctions regime for Europe are mounting. With winter approaching and temperatures dropping, and as a direct consequence of severing trade with Russia, Europe is preparing for electricity outages, a lack of lighting and heat, and temporary cuts in internet and mobile service. Yet the war continues, with Russia escalating to a campaign of missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Indeed, it is the collective nature of the sanctions—the process of their development and implementation—that allows Russia to circumvent the worst of the intended economic pain. Each member of the sanctioning coalition is incentivized to decrease the individual burden felt from severing economic relations with Russia. This not only reduces the effectiveness of the ultimate compromise, but also provides Russia with lead time to adjust to future sanctions and incentivizes Western firms to increase trade with Russia before sanctions are imposed. […]

The other way to increase the sanctions’ leverage is to ensure that Russia can’t adjust to the effects of the sanctions package before it is enforced. This requires getting India and China, as well as other smaller yet key economies, on board with the sanctions regime. To tempt India, at the very least, the West would need to offer oil at a cheaper rate than Russia. Of course, this would be no guarantee of Indian participation; the expected outcome would merely level the playing field with Russia. It is hard to imagine what could get China to agree on a sanctions package against Russia. It is even harder to imagine the West being willing to pay that price. Yet, as long as Russia has viable alternative markets for its key exports and alternative trade partners willing to sell it necessary products, sanctions will not be able to apply sufficient pressure to change Russia’s policy in Ukraine.

To facilitate an end to the war in Ukraine, the West will need to look to alternative tools. At this juncture, diplomacy is the tool most likely to succeed. As Russia has nuclear weapons, even a decisive military victory by Ukraine that pushed Russian troops beyond the border is not a guarantee of war termination. Russia can continue shelling Ukrainian infrastructure from its territory. Moreover, a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory would carry significant risks of nuclear retaliation. Läs artikel