The 99-year-old former secretary of state has just published a book on leadership and sees a dangerous lack of strategic purpose in U.S. foreign policy. […]

“In my thinking, equilibrium has two components,” he tells me. “A kind of balance of power, with an acceptance of the legitimacy of sometimes opposing values. Because if you believe that the final outcome of your effort has to be the imposition of your values, then I think equilibrium is not possible.”[…]

“I think that the current period has a great trouble defining a direction,” Mr. Kissinger says. “It’s very responsive to the emotion of the moment.” Americans resist separating the idea of diplomacy from that of “personal relationships with the adversary.” They tend to view negotiations, he tells me, in missionary rather than psychological terms, seeking to convert or condemn their interlocutors rather than to penetrate their thinking. […]

Mr. Kissinger sees today’s world as verging on a dangerous disequilibrium. “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to,” he says. Could the U.S. manage the two adversaries by triangulating between them, as during the Nixon years? He offers no simple prescription. “You can’t just now say we’re going to split them off and turn them against each other. All you can do is not to accelerate the tensions and to create options, and for that you have to have some purpose.” […]

The policy that was carried out by both parties has produced and allowed the progress of Taiwan into an autonomous democratic entity and has preserved peace between China and the U.S. for 50 years,” he says. “One should be very careful, therefore, in measures that seem to change the basic structure.[…]

He sees no choice but to take Vladimir Putin’s stated security concerns seriously and believes that it was a mistake for NATO to signal to Ukraine that it might eventually join the alliance: “I thought that Poland—all the traditional Western countries that have been part of Western history—were logical members of NATO,” he says. But Ukraine, in his view, is a collection of territories once appended to Russia, which Russians see as their own, even though “some Ukrainians” do not. Stability would be better served by its acting as a buffer between Russia and the West: “I was in favor of the full independence of Ukraine, but I thought its best role was something like Finland. Artikel bakom betalvägg

President Joe Biden is not to blame for all of America’s blunders in Afghanistan, but he could help decide whether we learn from them. We may not discover the conclusions of Congress’ independent Afghanistan War Commission until 2025, but we have an overabundance of damning revelations by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), not to mention accusations of intelligence failures, interagency finger-pointing and distrust, and policy inertia within America’s national security institutions, to sort through. By taking charge of such an autopsy, the Biden administration can deftly redirect criticism from how America’s war in Afghanistan ended to what really matters: how the United States squandered twenty years, $2.31 trillion, and nearly 2,500 American lives on what General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ultimately dubbed a “strategic defeat.”[…]

While pursuing accountability in America, Biden must also course correct his policy toward Afghanistan. For the past year, the Biden administration has been holding $7 billion of the Afghan central bank’s reserves hostage in an attempt to coerce the Taliban into liberalizing. Yet this U.S. effort to change the group’s behavior has failed. Meanwhile, the United Nations’ acting secretary-general’s special representative for Afghanistan assessed that, over the past year, the Afghan economy has contracted by 30-40 percent and unemployment has nearly tripled. 97 percent of Afghans could be living in poverty by the end of the year. The Afghan people—many of whom came to support the Taliban after two decades of war—must not be made to suffer for the Taliban’s crimes.[…]

In contrast to ISIS-K, the Taliban is an entity the United States can tolerate. This is true even after the CIA tracked down and assassinated Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Taliban safehouse in Kabul. After the United States located and killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011, Obama administration officials chose to sustain their partnership with Islamabad despite acknowledging that U.S.-Pakistani ties were “complicated.” The same can be true of U.S. relations with the Taliban. The precision strike on Zawahiri was exceptional—not only for the fact that no civilians were harmed but also in that the Al Qaeda leader was so oblivious to the threat to his life. Al Qaeda’s next leader will be less likely to unwind alone on his balcony. Läs artikel

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it took itself off the map of Eurasian transport corridors linking China and Europe. At the same time, it breathed new life into moribund routes that would allow goods to travel across the Eurasian landmass without traversing Russia. It also opened the door to greater Russian connectivity with the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia.

Next month’s summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the Uzbek ancient Silk Road trading hub of Samarkand could provide a lynchpin for alternative routes.

The SCO, which groups China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, is certain to set the scene for an expansion into the Middle East as well as agreement on the construction of a crucial Central Asian railroad. […]

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it took itself off the map of Eurasian transport corridors linking China and Europe. At the same time, it breathed new life into moribund routes that would allow goods to travel across the Eurasian landmass without traversing Russia. It also opened the door to greater Russian connectivity with the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia.

Next month’s summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the Uzbek ancient Silk Road trading hub of Samarkand could provide a lynchpin for alternative routes.

The SCO, which groups China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, is certain to set the scene for an expansion into the Middle East as well as agreement on the construction of a crucial Central Asian railroad. Läs artikel

Arktis i USA blir enten brukt som et symbol for de stadig mer tydelige effektene av global oppvarming, eller som et påskudd for å snakke om Kina. Dette har hindret USA å se det større bildet av geopolitikk utenfor stuedøren. Men det er også en mulighet for Norge og det norske «nordområdediplomatiet».

Den første utfordringen for USA i nord gjelder den amerikanske delen av Arktis, dvs. Alaska. USAs største stat, ofte glemt av «the lower 48», har sikkerhetsutfordringer som er av både lokal og nasjonal interesse. […]

Hvis direkte konflikt mellom et Nato-land og Russland bryter ut lenger sør, vil konflikten sannsynligvis raskt spre seg til det europeiske Arktis. Dette er på grunn av de russiske atomubåtene som er stasjonert på Kolahalvøya. Dette er heller ikke nytt, men en gjentagelse av scenarioet Norge fryktet under Den kalde krigen.

USA har derfor i økende grad engasjert seg i «arktiske sikkerhetsoperasjoner» og øvelser i Nord-Atlanteren og Norge. USA andre flåte med ansvar for Nord-Atlanteren og Russland ble «reaktivert» i 2018. Samme år ble USS Harry S. Truman det første hangarskipet som seilte over polarsirkelen siden slutten av Den kalde krigen. B1-bombefly, ubåter av Seawolf-klassen og amerikanske marinesoldater har alle i økende grad vært aktive i våre nordområder som del av enten militærøvelser eller som «roterende styrker».

Dette kommer ikke bare fordi de nordiske landene ber om hjelp til å avskrekke og overvåke Russland. Disse handlingene er også i USAs egeninteresse: styrkene som kommer fra den russiske Nordflåten utgjør en trussel for den amerikanske østkysten. […]

Utfordringen ligger i at når USAs politiske apparat først engasjerer seg i et tema blir både handlingene og ordene store. Norge er ikke tjent med om den økte oppmerksomheten gitt til nordområdene leder til hissig retorikk og økt spenning. Samtidig er USAs nordområdeinteresse en utmerket mulighet for norske diplomater til å sette Norge på kartet og fremme våre interesser. Läs artikel

Ukraina er blitt et live test- og innovasjonsområde for både nye typer droner og for nye typer taktikker og strategier knyttet til hvordan droner kan brukes i en moderne fullskala krig mot en teknologisk avansert motstander. Denne innovasjon-, test-, og læringsprosessen viser med all tydelighet hvor viktige og effektive droner vil være i fremtidige kriger.

Ordet drone har blitt et paraplybegrep for alle ubemannede luftsystemer. Dette kan bety små kommersielt tilgjengelige DJI-droner laget i Kina, som kan kjøpes hos de større elektronikkjedene av deg og meg, til mye større UAVer som for eksempel amerikanske Global Hawk, en drone på størrelse med et fly som brukes til overvåking og med rekkevidde på rundt 22000 km. Men det betyr også små prototypelignende droner der man i realiteten bruker de delene man har, vel vitende om at levetiden på dronen blir kort enten fordi produktet faller ned eller fordi man vet motstanderen i løpet av kort tid vil fjerne dronen fra luften. Läs artikel

Det danske forsvar er i forvejen hårdt presset og risikerer at stå svækket tilbage efter Ukraine-hjælp, lyder advarslen.

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has been described as “The most important UN agency you have never heard of.” The ITU’s upcoming quadrennial Plenipotentiary Conference, to be held in Bucharest, Romania this September 26^th through October 14^th, will host the most important election you have never heard of. […]

Atop the agenda for Bucharest is the selection of a new ITU Secretary-General. The election — decided by votes of the member nations — is shaping up as a tussle between a candidate who is American and one who is Russian. The American, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, is a veteran of almost three decades of experience at the ITU, and the first woman to head one of the agency’s three major bureaus. The Russian candidate, Rashid Ismailov, is a former deputy minister in the Russian Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, and a former Huawei executive.

Lurking behind the scenes in this election is much more than simply who will occupy the Secretary-General’s spacious office in Geneva. It is a competition between two visions of the internet: an open internet, or a kind of state-controlled internet that resembles Russia’s and China’s. Läs artikel

Måndagen den 8 augusti ryckte över 2000 värnpliktiga in vid något av Arméns regementen.
– De innebär så småningom ett betydande tillskott av soldater i våra brigader, säger arméchef Karl Engelbrektson.

Från Boden i norr till Revinge i söder: Under gårdagen gick många tjejer och killar innanför grindarna i syfte att påbörja sin militära grundutbildning – och bekanta sig med varandra, sina befäl men också med troligtvis tidigare okända begrepp som ”uppställning”, ”marschfärdig” och ”framrycka”. På I 19 ryckte 300 värnpliktiga in för under de kommande tio månaderna utbildas till en rad befattningar.

– Hos oss utbildas manöverplutoner bestående av stridsfordonsbesättningar och skyttegrupper som tillsammans bildar konceptet pansarskytte. De värnpliktiga kommer tidigt lära sig att inställa sig under det gemensamma ansvarets krav och förstå att vi alla är en liten kugge i ett större koncept som bara fungerar om alla gör det som förväntas av dem. Hur vi gör det är genom kvalitativ utbildning med höga krav, säger Daniel Mattsson, ställföreträdande kompanichef på pansarskyttekompaniet vid Norrbottens regemente. Läs pressmeddelande