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Sveriges Natoansökan hänger på en skör tråd inför toppmötet i Madrid. Med tanke på ledande S-ministrars täta kontakter med företrädare för kurdiska grupper som befinner sig i en utdragen och blodig konflikt med den turkiska regimen är det inget att förvånas över. I presidenten Erdoğans ögon rör det sig om terroristorganisationer. Bortsett från hur stödet till kurderna i norra Syrien ska värderas är det gåtfullt hur regeringen kunde föreställa sig att det skulle passera obemärkt i sammanhanget.

Den turkiska säkerhetstjänsten MIT är ”extremt kompetent och har koll på precis allt”, menar en initierad person med insyn i Natoprocessen, särskilt i frågor som anses hota den nationella säkerheten. För MIT är det väl känt att både försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist och utrikesminister Ann Linde odlar vänskapliga förbindelser med den turkiska statens fiender. En del har också rapporterats i internationella medier. […]

Det finns också en förhistoria. Redan 2012 uppdagades det att Peter Hultqvist deltog och höll tal vid firandet av PKK:s 33 års-dag i Folkets Hus i Borlänge i december 2011, då i rollen som riksdagsledamot för S, ordförande i försvarsutskottet, ledamot i partiets verkställande utskott, VU, och ordförande i partidistriktet. I lokalen fanns PKK-flaggor och bilder på den livstidsdömde PKK-ledaren Abdullah Öcalan. Kritiken var hård men bet inte. […]

Även Ann Linde har träffat Nasrin Abdullah, då i sällskap med vänstervilden Amineh Kakabaveh och så sent som i slutet av mars 2022, en månad in på den ryska invasionen av Ukraina i ett läge när Natodebatten sköt fart. På en twitterbild från mötet står en till synes nöjd utrikesminister i mitten. […]

Det som skulle bli ”ett snabbspår” in i Nato vilar nu i Erdoğans händer. Han kan utnyttja situationen inrikespolitiskt och/eller för att tvinga till sig amerikanska vapensystem och har ingen brådska. Frågan inställer sig om statsminister Magdalena Andersson förr eller senare tvingas offra Hultqvist eller Linde eller båda för att rädda situationen. Turkiet ger knappast vika utan att få något substantiellt i utbyte. Läs artikel

Läs även kommentar tidigare på den här sajten till regeringens kontakter med kurdiska  organisationer i Syrien.

Russia looked set for its first sovereign default in decades as some bondholders said they had not received overdue interest on Monday following the expiry of a key payment deadline a day earlier.

Russia has struggled to keep up payments on $40 billion of outstanding bonds since its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, as sweeping sanctions have effectively cut the country off from the global financial system and rendered its assets untouchable to many investors. […]

The payments in question are $100 million in interest on two bonds, one denominated in U.S. dollars and another in euros , Russia was due to pay on May 27. The payments had a grace period of 30 days, which expired on Sunday.

Russia’s finance ministry said it made the payments to its onshore National Settlement Depository (NSD) in euros and dollars, adding it has fulfilled obligations. Läs artikel

Russia said on Saturday its troops have killed ”up to 80” Polish  fighters in ”precision strikes” in eastern Ukraine.
”Up to 80 Polish mercenaries, 20 armoured combat vehicles and eight Grad multiple rocket launchers were de stroyed in precision strikes on the Megatex zinc factory in Konstantinovka” in the Donetsk region the Russian defence ministry said in a statement which could  not be independently verified. Läs artikel

Escalating tensions and confrontations between the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on one side and Russia on the other side got a new remarkable push with NATO and EU member Lithuania’s decision to restrict freight traffic from Russia to its exclave of Kaliningrad. Lithuania agued it is enforcing EU sanctions against Russia and the EU for itself meant Lithuania is right and officially supported Lithuania.

In reality, both Lithuania and the EU violated international law inhabitated in their 2002 agreement with Russia which paved the way for Lithuania to join the EU. But in light of the ongoing battle in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine and the present catastrophic state of the relationship between Russia and the West – that means EU, NATO, the US, and their allies -, international law has very little to say. EU and Lithuania accused Russia of having broken international law with its ”special military operation” in Ukraine. But now, they used violating international law in their conflict with Russia. Läs artikel

FN-traktaten som forbyr utvikling, produksjon, testing, anskaffelse og bruk av atomvåpen, trådte i kraft i januar i fjor og er nå ratifisert av 60 land. 29 land har undertegnet, men ennå ikke ratifisert traktaten, og ytterligere 49 land stemte for da den ble behandlet i FN.

Verdens ni atommakter – USA, Russland, Storbritannia, Frankrike, Kina, India, Pakistan, Israel og Nord-Korea – stemte imot, det samme gjorde Norge og de øvrige medlemslandene i Nato, som siden 1954 har åpnet for bruk av atomvåpen. […]

Langt større bekymring er knyttet til taktiske atomvåpen, som har mindre stridshoder og kortere rekkevidde, og som enkelte militærstrateger derfor leker med tanken om å bruke. Flere land, med USA i spissen, satser derfor stort på å utvikle slike taktiske atomvåpen, noe som bekymrer tilhengerne av atomvåpenforbud. Läs artikel

Relations with neighbouring countries were high on the agenda as the Security Council this week discussed issues of national security in the Northwestern Federal District. According to Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, a series of new regional threats are emerging. Among them is the possible inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO, he told the assembly.

In the room were high-ranking representatives of law enforcement authorities, governors and other leaders from the region, among them presidential envoy for the Northwest Russian Federal District Aleksandr Gutsan.

The protection of the border to Finland and the Nordic countries must be strengthened, he underlined. He also specifically highlighted relations with Estonia and the disputed territory between the countries.

”In connection with the emergence of new threats following the possible membership in NATO of Finland and Sweden, the shutdown of cross-border cooperation by European countries with our country, as well as in connection with the lack of official demarcation of the border between Russia and Estonia, additional measures are needed on the streamlining of forces and equipment for the protection of the state border,” Patrushev underlined. […]

Murmansk Governor Andrei Chibis was one of the regional leaders present in the meeting. In a comment, Chibis says his region “always has been open for dialogue and cooperation,” and that a close and good neighbourly relationship with the Scandinavian countries have been developed over years.

But now has come another era, he explains.

“Nikolai Patruchev rightly highlighted the need to strengthen the protection of our borders based on the current situation,” he writes on Telegram.

According to Chibis, Murmansk is now orienting itself towards other markets.

“We are now rebuilding our economy based on the new realities and work with partners from friendly countries,” he writes on his VK page. Läs artikel

1. The parties acknowledge the unique situation of the Kaliningrad Region as part of the Russian Federation but separated from the rest of the Federation by other states. With the aim of further
developing the strategic partnership between EU and Russia, the parties therefore agree to make a
special effort to accommodate the concerns on both sides related to the future transit of persons and
goods between the Kaliningrad Region and other parts of Russia, and to intensify their cooperation
to promote the social and economic development of the region as a whole. Läs överenskommelsen

Överenskommelsen mellan Litauen och Ryssland 1993 om vägtransporter finns att läsa här

[…] Nuclear submarines from Russia’s powerful Northern Fleet also have to pass close to Svalbard’s southernmost Bear Island to get into the North Atlantic.

Russia’s ”main interest is to avoid a situation (where) others use (the islands) offensively,” said political scientist Arild Moe of Norway’s Fridtjof Nansen Institute. To make sure that happens they ”maintain a reasonable presence and are very attentive to what is going on,” he added.

After failing to get joint authority of the islands at the end of World War II, Russia is now pushing — without much success — for ”bilateral consultations” to lift the brakes on its activities. […]

Moscow regularly accuses Oslo of violating one of the most important articles of the 1920 treaty which effectively makes Svalbard a demilitarised zone. It protests every time a Norwegian frigate docks or NATO lawmakers visit, and is particularly wary of the gigantic Svalsat satellite station near Longyearbyen. [… ]

Svalbard is ”the Achilles heel of NATO in the Arctic”, said James Wither, a professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany, because its distance from mainland Norway and ”peculiar legal status provides a range of possible pretexts for Russian intervention.

”Although the danger of a direct military confrontation remains low, Svalbard is particularly vulnerable to a Russian gamble that offers the strategic payoff of advancing Russia’s long-term objectives of dividing the West and neutralising NATO,” the former British Army officer wrote in 2018.

Norway tries to play down Russian grievances, saying that they are far from new and insists that its sovereignty over the islands is no different to any other part of its territory.

Praised for his rapport with his Russian opposite number Sergei Lavrov when he was foreign minister between 2005 and 2012, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store is an apostle of Oslo’s ”High North, low tensions” doctrine. […]

Like its high-latitude neighbours Greenland, Iceland and the Faroe Islands, Svalbard seems to be in China’s sights. Indeed it now defines itself as a ”near-Arctic” state and wants to establish a ”Polar Silk Road”.

With the region heating up three times faster than the planet, shrinking ice floes are opening up economic opportunities and maritime routes, although some are more theoretical than real. With new fishing grounds and easier access to potential resources like oil and gas fields, everyone is trying to get a foot in the door. Läs artikel