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Ryssland varnar Finland och Sverige för att gå med i försvarsalliansen Nato. Det ryska utrikesministeriets pressdirektör Maria Zacharova sade enligt nyhetsbyrån Ria Novostij på julafton att det är fullständigt klart att ett finländskt och svenskt Natomedlemskap skulle få ”allvarliga militära och politiska konsekvenser” som skulle ”förutsätta ryska motåtgärder”.

Därmed gjorde hon klart att de ryska varningarna för en Natoexpansion österut inte gäller bara Ukraina utan likväl Finland och Sverige. […]

När HBL frågar den tidigare riksdagsledamoten, Europaparlamentarikern och Rysslandskännaren Henrik Lax hur han tolkar uttalandet svarar han kort:

– Det är absolut ingenting nytt under solen.

Lax påminner om att han redan under Gullrandasamtalen 2014 uttryckte sin oro för att Finland befinner sig i gråzonen mellan Nato och Ryssland.

Diplomaten, författaren och Rysslandsexperten René Nyberg är inte heller särskilt pigg på att åter en gång gå in på det han sagt förut.

Nyberg hänvisar till en redogörelse om konsekvenserna av ett eventuellt finskt Natomedlemskap från 2016 som påpekar att Finland har en ostadig och oförutsägbar stormakt och kärnvapenmakt som granne. Han poängterar att det är ett dilemma som Finland inte kan lösa, men nog handskas med. Läs artikel

President Vladimir Putin has described the fall of the Soviet Union, which came to a formal end 30 years ago, on December 26, 1991, as a geopolitical tragedy; and it is easy to understand why he and many other Russians would see it as such. In a deeper, more classical sense, however, it may be said that the true tragedy of the end of the Cold War was that of the apparent victor, the United States.

The last acts of this tragedy are still to be written. We can hope that it will end with the relative reconciliation and harmony of Coriolanus, and not the nihilistic horror of Titus Andronicus. The New Year, when (ideally) people consider the past in order to commit themselves to do better in future, is a good time to think about the meaning of this tragedy. […]

American victory was complete; too complete. In terms of foreign policy, it bred in America the atmosphere that produced the phrase, that to my horror I heard repeated by Democratic and Republican analysts alike, that “of course, today America is so powerful that it can achieve anything it wants in the world, if it only has the will.” This mood produced the so-called “Wolfowitz Doctrine” summed up in the Defense Planning Guidance memo of 1992, that advocated in effect the extension to the entire planet of Theodore Roosevelt’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which had stated that the United States had the right not only to exclude foreign powers from Central America but to intervene there by force to create better governments. Läs artikel

Sveriges bör inleda diplomatiska förbindelser med talibanstyret i Afghanistan. Det säger mångårige S-ministern Thage G. Peterson i en intervju med Dagens Etc.

Peterson, som på 1990-talet var Sveriges försvarsminister, menar att Sverige måste skapa en ny politik med Afghanistans nya ledning.

– De måste få styra sitt land själva. Här finns ambitioner från en rad stater att lägga sig i och det har misslyckats varenda gång. Jag menar att vi ska bygga upp goda relationer med Afghanistan och talibanerna, säger Peterson i intervjun.

Thage G. Peterson var en av Socialdemokraternas ledande politiker på 1970-, −80, och −90-talen. Utöver posten som försvarsminister har han bland annat varit industriminister, justitieminister och riksdagens talman. Läs artikel

Nearly 700 scientists and engineers, including 21 Nobel laureates, asked President Joe Biden on Thursday to use his forthcoming declaration of a new national strategy for managing nuclear weapons as a chance to cut the US arsenal by a third and to declare, for the first time, that the United States would never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.

The letter to Biden also urged him to change, for the first time since President Harry S. Truman ordered the dropping of the atomic bomb over Hiroshima, the American practice that gives the commander in chief sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons. The issue gained prominence during the Trump administration, and the authors of the letter urged Biden to make the change as “an important safeguard against a possible future president who is unstable or who orders a reckless attack.” Läs artikel

Överbefälhavare Micael Bydén besökte nyligen de svenska soldaterna och officerarna i FN-insatsen Minusma och specialförbandsinsatsen 
Task Force Takuba i Mali.
– Jag lämnar Mali mycket stolt över de soldater och chefer jag mött under resan, säger överbefälhavaren. […]

– Säkerhetssituationen i Mali är utmanande och föränderlig vilket kräver en ständig anpassning av våra resurser och arbetsmetoder, säger ÖB.
–  Den multinationella specialförbandsinsatsen Task Force Takuba är ett viktigt komplement till Minusma-insatsen samt EUTM Mali-insatsen. De olika insatserna har olika mandat, uppgifter och struktur men strävar mot samma mål – att öka säkerheten i det utsatta Mali. Läs pressmeddelande

[…] In the spirit of detente, a concept that launched our committee in 1974, we propose taking the following steps to build trust and facilitate dialogue:

1. We urge the Biden Administration to reopen the Consulates and reverse its recent decision to halt Visa services for most Russians.
2. President Biden should invite President Putin to join him in reaffirming the declaration first made by President Reagan and Soviet leader Gorbachev at their 1985 summit in Geneva that “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” This went a long way during the Cold War to reassure the peoples of the two countries and the world that even though we had deep differences we were committed to never fighting a nuclear war. It would go a long way to do the same today.
3. Reengage with Russia. Restore wide contacts, scientific, medical, educational, cultural and environmental exchanges. Expand people-to-people citizen diplomacy, Track II, Track 1.5 and governmental diplomatic initiatives. In this regard, it is worth recalling that another of our board members, former US Senator Bill Bradley, was the guiding force behind the Future Leaders Exchange (FLEX), based on his conviction that “the best way to ensure long-lasting peace and understanding between the U.S. and Eurasia is to enable young people to learn about democracy firsthand through experiencing it”.

There is so much more we need to take on, but we believe these would serve as the foundation for progress in other areas down the road. Läs det öppna brevet

Russia announced Saturday that more than 10,000 troops had finished month-long drills near Ukraine, amid Western accusations that Moscow was plotting an invasion of its ex-Soviet neighbour.

The defence ministry said in a statement that the drills for Southern Military District forces had taken place in a host of southern regions including Rostov, Krasnodar and Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

But the drills also took place further afield, including in Stavropol, Astrakhan, North Caucasus republics and even in Russia’s Caucasus ally Armenia.

The defence ministry said the troops were returning to their permanent bases and that stand-by units would be readied for the New Year’s holidays. Läs artikel

Novak Djokovic inledde sin resa till världstoppen i ett krigshärjat Belgrad. Nu berättar pappan Srdjan hur familjen fick skydda världsettan från missilerna.

– Ett trauma som varar livet ut, säger han.

Novak Djokovic är inte bara världsetta med 20 grand slam-titlar i bagaget, utan också en av de bästa tennisspelarna någonsin.

Novak Djokovic är inte bara världsetta med 20 grand slam-titlar i bagaget, utan också en av de bästa tennisspelarna någonsin. Men vägen till rampljuset har knappast varit spikrak för serben.

Djokovic växte upp i ett krigshärjat Belgrad under 90-talet och när Serbien vägrade att utropa Kosovo som självständigt drabbades landet av omfattande Nato-bombningar. Läs artikel

Tillsammans med 15 andra länder, däribland Frankrike och Kanada, har Sverige skrivit under ett uttalande där man fördömer den ryska paramilitära gruppen Wagners närvaro i Mali.

– Det är för tidigt att säga vad detta kan få för direkta konsekvenser för svensk militär närvaro i Mali, säger utrikesminister Ann Linde (S) i ett mejl till DN. […]

– Vi står nu i kontakt med en rad partners, truppbidragare och andra länder och aktörer. Oron är samstämmig. Den typ av destabiliserade effekt som Wagnergruppens närvaro haft i andra länder måste motverkas i Mali, säger utrikesminister Ann Linde (S) i en mejlkommentar till DN på julafton.

– Vi måste tillsammans med våra internationella partners utvärdera situationen. Det finns samsyn om att ett avtal mellan Mali och Wagnergruppen skulle få konsekvenser för det internationella samfundets militära insatser. Det är för tidigt att gå in exakt på vilka konsekvenserna skulle kunna vara. Läs artikel

Russia, Ukraine and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have agreed to restore a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine where Kiev is fighting Russia-backed separatists, the OSCE said.

Kiev has been battling a pro-Moscow insurgency in two breakaway regions bordering Russia since 2014, shortly after the Kremlin annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.

Western countries accuse Russia of having massed around 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders and accuse Moscow of planning a winter invasion.

The United States has warned the Kremlin of unprecedented sanctions should it launch an attack.

”I was delighted that participants expressed their strong determination to fully adhere to the measures to strengthen the ceasefire agreement of 22 July 2020,” OSCE chairman-in-office in Ukraine, Mikko Kinnunen, said in a statement late on Wednesday (Dec 22).

”This is of utmost significance for the people living on both sides of the contact line,” Kinnunen added. Läs artikel

We, the international partners committed to supporting Mali and its people in their efforts to achieve sustainable peace and stability and combat terrorism, firmly condemn the deployment of mercenary troops on Malian territory. This deployment can only further deteriorate the security situation in West Africa, lead to an aggravation of the Human Rights situation in Mali, threaten the Agreement for peace and reconciliation in Mali resulting from the Algiers process, and hamper the efforts of the international community to ensure the protection of civilians and to provide support to the Malian armed forces.
We deeply regret the choice of the Malian transitional authorities to use already scarce public funds to pay foreign mercenaries instead of supporting the Malian Armed Forces and public services to the benefit of the Malian people.
We are aware of the involvement of the Russian Federation government in providing material support to the deployment of the Wagner group in Mali and call on Russia to revert to a responsible and constructive behavior in the region. […]

We will not give up our efforts to address the needs of the Malian population. In line with the objectives of the international Coalition for the Sahel, we reaffirm our commitment to continuing efforts to protect civilians, to support the fight against terrorism in the Sahel and help build long-term stability by supporting sustainable development, respect for human rights and the deployment of public services. We will continue to closely follow and assess the situation.

Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom       Läs uttalandet

The OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Ann Linde, welcomed the strong determination to fully adhere to the Measures to Strengthen the Ceasefire agreement of 22 July 2020 expressed at yesterday’s meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group.

“This represents a small but important first step towards de-escalation along the contact line. After nearly eight years of conflict, it is high time to ease the plight of civilians in eastern Ukraine who deserve to live without fear of shelling,” Linde said.

“In light of recent developments, it is also all the more critical that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine – the eyes and ears of the OSCE and the international community on the ground – is allowed to carry out its impartial and fact-based monitoring and reporting on the security situation without restrictions,” she added. Läs uttalandet