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Whether deliberately or not, the Russian government has left the United States and NATO a perfect “golden bridge” out of the trap that is developing in Ukraine. In diplomatic parlance, this means finding the other side a way of abandoning an untenable position without excessive loss of face or sacrifice of truly important interests.

In the present crisis between Russia and the West, the golden bridge is Ukrainian neutrality, along the general lines of the Austrian State Treaty of 1955, by which Western and Soviet occupying troops withdrew from that country, allowing it to develop as a successful free-market democracy. The Biden administration, either directly or through German and French mediation, should seek to “own” the idea of Ukrainian neutrality as its response to Russia’s demands.

The Russian demand that Ukraine be excluded from NATO and that NATO and Washington promise not to station troops or conduct military exercises near Russia’s borders is clearly unacceptable as it stands. It asks for concessions from the West without offering anything in return. It is also, however, only an initial bargaining move. If the West in return proposes Ukrainian neutrality, it will be very difficult for Russia to refuse. The issue of European Union membership can be shelved, since — let us be honest — there is no chance of Ukraine joining the EU in any foreseeable future. Läs artikel

Five of the world’s most powerful nations have agreed that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” in a rare joint pledge to reduce the risk of such a conflict ever starting.

The pledge was signed by the US, Russia, China, the UK and France, the five nuclear weapons states recognised by the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) who are also the five permanent members of the UN security council. They are known as the P5 or the N5.

Such a common statement on a major issue of global security has become a rarity at a time of increasing friction between Russia, China and the west. Läs artikel

The People’s Republic of China, the French Republic, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America consider the avoidance of war between Nuclear-Weapon States and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities.

We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.  As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons—for as long as they continue to exist—should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.  We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.

We reaffirm the importance of addressing nuclear threats and emphasize the importance of preserving and complying with our bilateral and multilateral non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control agreements and commitments.  We remain committed to our Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, including our Article VI obligation “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.” Läs artikel

Svar på fråga 2021/22:678 av Hans Wallmark (M)
Den danska spionsaken

Hans Wallmark har frågat mig om jag på något sätt avser agera mot den danska regeringen efter att en kontrollkommission nu frikänt fem avstängda tidigare medarbetare vid Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste som ansvariga för den tidigare uppmärksammade spionsaken, vilken även berörde Sverige?

Jag har tidigare i såväl Försvarsutskottet som i Utrikesutskottet redogjort för min och regeringens hantering av denna fråga. I dialogen med danska och amerikanska företrädare har regeringen varit tydlig med vikten av att få uppgifterna grundligt utredda samt att avlyssning mellan nära partners är oacceptabelt.

Det är regeringens uppfattning att den information vi fått från Danmark bekräftar den danska regeringens hållning sedan 2014 att systematisk avlyssning av nära partners är oacceptabelt.

Jag finner därmed ingen anledning att agera mot den danska regeringen. Läs svaret

Läs också tidigare kommentar.

Nu har det otydliga politiska mullret övergått i skarpt försvarspolitiskt språk då president Vladimir Putin höll presskonferens i Moskva torsdagen 23 december. […]

I Expressen heter det: ”Både ÖB och försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist (S) har insett allvaret.”. Nej, det har de inte och det är det största problemet. Det klokaste inlägget finns i GP:s rubrik (24/12) av reportern Jan Höglund med rubriken: ”Putin backar inte – väst står inför ett dilemma.” Helt rätt med tillägget: Både Ryssland och USA står inför ett skarpt dilemma. […]

Detta är ett känt säkerhetspolitiskt dilemma som kan lösas antingen med politik/diplomati eller med krig. Detta dilemma och osäkerheten om vilken part som slår till först fick arméofficerare lära sig redan på kadettskolan.

ÖB däremot som pilot visade med sitt inträdesanförande i Krigsvetenskapsakademien att han liksom försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist är okunnig om vad gäller planläggning och genomförande av försvarspolitik. Läs artikel

A significant coalition of political parties in Mali rejected the military-led government’s plans for a slow transition to democratic rule.

The military plan says the transition could take up to five years. Under its plan, a constitutional referendum would be held in 2023 and legislative elections in 2025. A presidential election would not take place until 2026. The junta called its proposal ”appropriate to conduct the political and institutional reforms.” […]

In Germany, the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces Eva Högl said the Bundeswehr, or German army, should evaluate its role in Mali and consider ending its military operations there.

The Bundeswehr has just over 1,350 soldiers in Mali involved in the UN mission and the EU training mission. Läs artikel

Ifølge juntaens plan, som nyhetsbyrået AP har fått tilgang til, vil det bli avholdt grunnlovsavstemning i 2023, etterfulgt av et parlamentsvalg i 2025, før det blir avholdt et presidentvalg i 2026.

– Denne femårsperioden er en passende mengde tid til å foreta politiske og institusjonelle reformer, for å legge til rette for folkeavstemninger, står det i forslaget fra juntaen.

De vestafrikanske staters økonomiske fellesskap (ECOWAS) har truet med å innføre flere sanksjoner hvis militærjuntaen ikke avholder presidentvalg innen utgangen av februar. Som svar på forslaget har organisasjonen kalt inn til et ekstraordinært møte i løpet av en uke. Militærjuntaen mener at det ikke kan avholdes valg ettersom sikkerhetssituasjonen i landet er svært usikker. Ytterliggående islamistgrupper har operert i landet i mange år.

Frankrike er i ferd med å redusere sitt militære bidrag til landet og mange er bekymret for at det vil forverre situasjonen. Läs artikel

[…] Konflikten vid Ukrainas gränser håller på att fördjupas. Med tanke på säkerheten i Europa har stämningarna skärpts. Förändringen har varit snabb. Ännu i somras, som ett resultat av president Bidens resa till Europa, verkade oron framför allt riktas mot Kina. Efter mötet mellan presidenterna Biden och Putin i Genève  bedömdes Förenta staterna och Ryssland bygga upp en dialog. Den artiga värden, Europa, var närmast en åhörare.

Nu är stämningen en annan. De ukaser som Ryssland framförde för Förenta staterna och Nato i december gäller Europa. De står i strid med den europeiska säkerhetsordningen. Intressesfärer hör inte till 2020-talet. Suverän jämlikhet mellan alla stater är en grundläggande princip som alla bör respektera.

I sista hand är besinning, ansvarstagande och dialog de enda vägarna framåt. Det är inte möjligt att bygga en hållbar framtid genom att hota med vapenmakt eller annat våld. Rysslands krav har besvarats genom att erbjuda dialog. Dialog har även Finland strävat mot och bidragit till. Läs talet

Fighter jets have been stationed at Bodø since 1955 and the air base was Norway’s most important throughout the Cold War and until today.

Located some 80 km inside the Arctic Circle, Bodø is strategically placed on the coast to the Norwegian Sea and in short flying distance to guard the northern air space against Russian military aviation flying out from the Kola Peninsula.

The closure of the air base also marks the end to 40 years of F-16 as the main fighter jet in the Norwegian Air Force.

The new fleet of F-35s is based at Ørland Air Base in southern Norway, but a few will also serve as NATO’s new QRA at Evenes Air Station near Harstad in the north. So far, 24 of 52 new F-35 have arrived in Norway. By 2025, all the new planes will be in service. Läs artikel

The Kremlin on the 30th of December issued greetings with best wishes for the new year to a big number of governments and state leaders. But not all countries are getting a salute from the Russian president.

On the list of 36 countries is not Norway, the neighboring country that shares a 198 km long far northern land border with Russia. The two countries are share vast waters in the Barents Sea.

The new Norwegian government has made clear that it aims for an intensification of political dialogue with Russia. The policy document issued as the government took office in November underlines that “bilateral cooperation with Russia is to be further developed,” with emphasis on ocean resources, climate and coastal-related issues in the Barents Sea and Arctic.

It also says that “new cooperation initiatives will be taken in relations with the neighboring countries,” and that “common meeting points” for foreign policy and security dialogue will be established.

Meanwhile, both Sweden and Finland are among the countries greeted by the Russian president. In his message to Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, Putin highlights that the bilateral relationship has a constructive and good-neighborly character.

In his greeting to Sweden’s new Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Putin expresses hope for a constructive development of bilateral political dialogue and that issues of trade, economic relations and humanitarian relations meet key interests of both countries. Läs artikel

A four-day forum in Bamako charged with recommending a timetable for a return to civilian rule has concluded that polls scheduled for February should be delayed by between six months and five years due to security issues.

Mali’s transitional government initially agreed to hold elections in February 2022, 18 months after an army faction led by Colonel Assimi Goita overthrew President Boubacar Ibrahim Keita.

But progress has been slow, with the junta blaming disorganisation and Islamist violence in the north and centre. As a result of the delay, Ecowas, West Africa’s main political and economic bloc, imposed sanctions on the coup leaders, and promised more if Mali failed to produce a plan for elections by 31 December.

After three weeks of discussions at a regional and national level, the 1,600 delegates at the National Conference on Reform in Bamako recommended elections be delayed by at least six months and up to five years. Läs artikel