Redaktionen

[…] The Russian Far East is the world’s last frontier, endowed with vast mineral resources. In the prevailing geopolitical conditions, Moscow has prioritised Asian countries for partnership. India gets a fast track both by virtue of its “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” with Russia as well as the warmth and cordiality in the personal equations between Modi and Putin. […]

The resuscitation of India’s ties with Russia has been one of the finest legacies of Modi’s foreign policy. PM made a pointed remark that “Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, we have stressed the need to take the path of diplomacy and dialogue. We support all peaceful efforts to end this conflict.” This is exactly the Russian position, too! 

The following are salients of PM’s speech: 

“India’s “Act Far-East policy… has become a key pillar of the “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” of India and Russia.” 

PM recalled that he pioneered the “Act Far-East policy”. With the rupture in Russia’s ties with the West and its pivot to Asia, vast opportunities are opening up for India to tap into the Far East’s fabulous resources. Beyond a matter of trade and investments, he also envisaged that “the talent and professionalism of Indians can bring about rapid development in the Russian Far East.” Läs artikel

Enligt Peter Hultqvist måste Sverige och andra länder räkna med att behöva bistå Ukraina militärt under lång tid framöver. För en dryg vecka sedan berättade regeringen om Sveriges sjunde militära stödpaket på en halv miljard kronor, denna gång bestående av ammunition. Därmed uppfyllde man inte det som stått högst på Ukrainas önskelista: det hett eftertraktade artillerisystemet Archer.

I det nya sonderingsuppdraget ska Archer ingå som en eventuell del i ett framtida militärt stöd till Ukraina, men försvarsministern är tveksam till om det kan bli aktuellt.

– Vi har bara 24 gripbara Archer i den svenska Försvarsmakten i dag. Det är en väldigt liten nivå, och om vi skickar Archer till Ukraina så har det också en direkt påverkan på den svenska försvarsförmågan, så just det beslutet är inte enkelt, säger Peter Hultqvist. Läs artikel

Läs även kommentar på den här sajten till debatten om Archer till Ukraina.

Regeringen ger Försvarets materielverk i uppdrag att redovisa förslag på hur myndigheten, inom ramen för sitt verksamhetsområde, kan bidra till att fortsatt stödja Ukrainas försvar.

Av redovisningen ska framgå vilka eventuella kostnader som blir
konsekvensen av myndighetens förslag, när stödet kan lämnas samt påverkan på myndighetens verksamhet i övrigt inklusive styrning och kontroll. Redovisningen ska också innehålla en bedömning i fråga om de sekretess- och säkerhetsskyddsaspekter som finns vid lämnande av stöd. Uppdraget ska genomföras i samverkan med Försvarsmakten.

Försvarets materielverk ska senast den 25 oktober 2022 lämna en skriftlig redovisning av uppdraget till Försvarsdepartementet. Läs pressmeddelandet

When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed the war in Ukraine to be a Zeitenwende, or turning point, in the history of Europe, he expressed a noble aspiration. But although it is fairly clear in which direction Germany and Europe is turning – toward strengthening the security of the continent and separating itself from the Russian economy – the final destination has yet to be determined. And without an end goal in sight, good intentions will remain just that. Future historians will judge 24 February 2022 be a turning point that failed to turn.

The destination should be this: Europe must become responsible for and capable of defending itself. Anything less would constitute a failure. True, it would be quite a change if Germany led the way in increasing military spending and the European continent weaned itself off of Russian oil and gas. But as long as Europe depends on the United States for its security, the continent will remain insecure. Today’s Washington has other priorities, strained resources and tempestuous politics. None of these problems will go away anytime soon. Of course, Europe should welcome the United States to play a supporting role within NATO, but it would be a mistake to rely on American protection. Germany’s national security strategy should state that within this decade, Europe should take the lead in its own defense. […]

Strikingly, despite the outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Washington has never wavered in recognizing that China poses a greater threat to US interests than Russia. If US forces are needed for a major operation in Asia, Europe should expect to be left in the lurch – opening the door for Russian adventurism. Läs artikel

While formerly neutral, Sweden and Finland have jointly decided to join NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s accession in particular will impact the military balance in the Baltic-Nordic theater of contention between Russia and the alliance. Joining NATO would be the culmination of a longer alignment process for Finland. […]

Lastly, this leads to the issue of strategic stability. In particular, the Finnish air force already on paper has the potential to hit the Russian Northern Fleet’s submarine bases in Murmansk Oblast, only 400 km from the FDF’s northernmost active airbase in Lapland. Adding NATO and especially the US Air Force to this equa[1]tion might cause concerns in Moscow that the seaborne component of its nuclear archi[1]tecture is permanently under threat. Further South, NATO’s aerial firepower would equally put Kaliningrad under in[1]creased threat, especially once Sweden and Finland are added. This would likely force Moscow to increase its surveillance and air defense infrastructure in the Kola Penin[1]sula, increasing the strain on its war and sanctions-hit economy or at least diverting resources earmarked for other areas of mil[1]itary modernization.

In deterrence equa[1]tions, perceptions are more important than one-sided inferences. With the attrition suffered by conventional forces in Ukraine, Russia by default will have to lean on nu[1]clear threats to coerce its neighbors and to, in its view, deter NATO. It may thus be an even more volatile actor in crisis situations if the Northern Fleet and Kaliningrad are deemed at threat. Consequently, while Fin[1]land NATO membership will likely in[1]crease its own and NATO’s security signif[1]icantly, it will likely have side-effects that impact alliance-Russian dynamics going forward. Läs artikel

U.S.-trained Ukrainian soldiers sank two Russian ships in June, according to Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s top acquisitions official. The incident came just two months after Washington gave Ukraine intelligence that helped it sink the Moskva, then Russia’s most powerful warship in the Black Sea.

Washington trained the combatants on how to use Harpoon anti-ship missiles over Memorial Day weekend earlier this year. “The next week, two Russian ships were sunk,” LaPlante said during an interview with Defense News.

The revelation emerged less than a week after news broke that Washington conducted war games with Kyiv in order to plan for its counter-offensive in Kherson, highlighting the close operational ties between the U.S. and Ukrainian militaries. The news adds to concerns that the United States is engaged in a full-scale proxy war with Russia, as Kelley Vlahos recently argued in Responsible Statecraft.

“As usual it appears that the administration wants to have it both ways: assure the American people that it is being ‘restrained’ and that we are not ‘at war’ with the Russians, but doing everything but planting a U.S. soldier and a flag inside Ukraine,” Vlahos wrote. […]

“Proxy wars are longstanding tools of great-power rivalry because they allow one side to bleed the other without a direct clash of arms,” Hal Brands of the American Enterprise Institute wrote back in May. “The key to the strategy is to find a committed local partner — a proxy willing to do the killing and dying — and then load it up with the arms, money and intelligence needed to inflict shattering blows on a vulnerable rival.” (Brands, who favors this approach, warned that the U.S. would be better served if it carried out such a strategy more quietly.) Läs artikel

Greece has sent letters to NATO and the United Nations, complaining over what it called ”inflammatory” statements by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and asking them to condemn Ankara’s behaviour, diplomatic sources said on Wednesday.

The two countries – North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies but historic foes – have been at odds for decades over a range of issues including where their continental shelves start and end, overflights in the Aegean Sea, and divided Cyprus. […]

According to Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news agency, Ankara sent letters this week to the European Union, NATO and the United Nations explaining its stance and views on issues including overlapping claims on airspace, territorial waters and the demilitarisation status of the Aegean islands, among other issues. Läs artikel

Läs också: Erdogan accuses Greece of ’occupying’ demilitarised islands

Europe’s largest nuclear plant has come under repeated shelling in recent weeks, sparking fears of a potential nuclear disaster.

Highlighting his continued grave concern over the situation, the UN chief again warned that any damage to Zaporizhzhia, or to any other nuclear facility in Ukraine, could result in a wide-reaching catastrophe.  […]

“As a first step, Russian and Ukrainian forces must commit not to engage in any military activity towards the plant site or from the plant site. The Zaporizhzhia facility and its surroundings must not be a target or a platform for military operations,” he said.

The second step would entail securing an agreement on a demilitarized perimeter.

“Specifically, that would include a commitment by Russian forces to withdraw all military personnel and equipment from that perimeter and a commitment by Ukrainian forces not to move into it. Operators at the plant must be able to carry out their responsibilities, and communications must be maintained”. Läs artikel

Internationella atomenergiorganet IAEA efterlyser en säkerhet

szon kring kärnkraftverket Zaporizjzja i Ukraina för att undvika att en förödande olycka inträffar. IAEA föreslår att å det snaraste inleda förhandlingar för att lyckas upprätta en säkerhetszon.

IAEA besökte Zaporizjzja med en delegation bestående av 14 observatörer förra veckan. Två av observatörerna stannade kvar med målet att upprätta en permanent närvaro vid kärnkraftverket. […]

Internationella atomenergiorganet IAEA uppger att man observerade ryska soldater, militärfordon och militärutrustning i kärnkraftverkets utrymmen. Bland annat observerades flera militärfordon på första våningen i turbinhallarna i två enheter, enhet ett och två.

Enligt IAEA är en expertgrupp från det ryska statliga bolaget Rosenergoatom också på plats i kärnkraftverket.

Ukraina har tidigare anklagat Ryssland för att stationera tunga vapen inne på området, och för att använda kärnkraftverket som militärbas. […]

IAEA rekommenderar att man ser till att personalen får arbeta i en passande arbetsmiljö där de också har tillgång till stöd från sina familjer. Läs artikel