Increased Militarization of the High North is No Guarantee for Peace and Stability, highnorthnews.com

Arne O. Holm. editor-in-chief, High North News

The Hurdal platform, the new Norwegian government’s founding document, does not mention commuter housing and travel expense forms very much. On the other hand, it says quite a great deal about peace and stuff, this political document that is staking out the course for the Labor and Center Party government coalition.

In addition to highlighting the Arctic as Norway’s most important peace project, the document also states that “the government wants to contribute to low tension in our immediate neighborhood”. The neighborhood referred to is the one in the High North.

According to the government, low tension is to be achieved “through Norwegian presence and through acting clearly, predictably and reassuring”. A pretty clear message, in other words, yet also quite unfit as a description of the current high tension in the High North.

Just the other day, Norway’s new Defense Minister Odd Roger Enoksen came back to Norway following a visit to his American colleague Lloyd J. Austin III. With him, he brought a not-so-small addendum to the Hurdal Platform, described in the defense magazine Forsvarets forum as well as here at High North News.

“We want more [military] exercise activity. It is increasing already, yet we want better coordination between the allies. This is important for decreasing tension.” Läs artikel

Ann Linde: OSCE working very closely with Russia to resolve Karabakh conflict, news.am

The OSCE is working very closely with Russia to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict . OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde stated about this at a joint news conference in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

She lauded Russia’s role in achieving the ceasefire, in particular, the country’s mediation efforts in ending hostilities on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border this week, and she thanked Russia for reaching a peace agreement last year that ended hostilities.

Linde added that she is in contact with the foreign ministers of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the OSCE is using all available tools to resolve this conflict, and this is what they are working very closely on—together with Russia. Läs artikel

Moscow insists no alternative to implementing Minsk agreements, tass.com

Moscow insists that the Minsk agreements are implemented consistently and that there is no alternative to this, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reported on Friday following the talks with Swedish Foreign Minister and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Ann Linde.

”The emphasis was put on the role of the OSCE to settle the Ukrainian crisis. We stressed the absolute necessity of the full, consistent, comprehensive implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures. We believe that the current presidency, including via its Special Representative [of the OSCE] in Ukraine and in the Contact Group, should promote direct dialogue between the sides of the conflict – Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk,” the minister said. Läs artikel

Lavrov hopes intergovernmental committee will solve Russian business’ problems in Sweden, tass.com

Russia expects that the joint Russian-Swedish Supervisory Committee on Trade and Economic Cooperation that has resumed its activities will eliminate the difficulties faced by Russian business in the country Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference following talks with OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden Ann Linde.

Lavrov drew the attention of his Swedish colleague to the fact that despite the ”well-known and natural contradictions”, the parties have ”good opportunities for cooperation” in a variety of areas, including trade, economy, investments, ecology, cultural and humanitarian projects, health care, and social issues.

”We welcomed the resumption of activities of the joint Russian-Swedish Supervisory Committee on Trade and Economic Cooperation after an eight-year hiatus,” the minister continued. ”Its regular session was held in Stockholm a month ago, and the attendees discussed future work in this direction,” he noted. Läs artikel

The British public wants NATO to renounce the first use of nuclear weapons, thebulletin.org

Mindful that a review of NATO’s “strategic concept” is under way, the British branch of Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs recently commissioned a survey of British public opinion in relation to NATO’s nuclear policy. (Pugwash Conferences is a non-governmental organization that was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in 1995.)

There were 2093 respondents to the survey, representing a broad range of social and economic backgrounds and the four constituent realms of the United Kingdom.

Asked whether they would wish NATO to engage in nuclear retaliation, if Russia were to use nuclear weapons against one or more NATO members, 51 percent of respondents answered “yes.” This suggests a group half-open to the use of nuclear weapons in certain circumstances.

The picture changed when the questions focused on the “first use” of nuclear weapons. Asked to consider the possibility of Russia invading one or more of the Baltic states without using nuclear weapons, 70 percent wished NATO to refrain from using nuclear weapons in any ensuing military operations, and 65 percent wished NATO to rely exclusively on non-nuclear weapons in such operations. Läs artikel

Rysslands hårda svar – efter Hultqvists besked, expressen.se

Svenska trupper kan i framtiden träna i Ukraina, enligt försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist.

Nu svarar ryska ambassaden – med en referens till slaget vid Poltava 1709.

”Poltavas ättlingar verkar dock inte ha dragit vederbörliga lärdomar av förflutna strider med Ryssland som redan störtat Sverige från dess stormaktshöjder”, skriver ambassaden på Facebook.

I tisdags sa försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist till Sveriges Radio Ekot att Sverige kan komma att delta i militärövningar i Ukraina, som ligger i konflikt med Ryssland Det är de baltiska länderna som föreslagit övningen, efter att rapporter kommit om att Ryssland rustat upp vid gränsen mot Ukraina. 2014 annekterade Ryssland Krimhalvön och östra Ukraina kontrolleras av utbrytarrepubliker som får ryskt stöd.

– Vi ser det som en väldigt viktig del att markera EU:s ambitioner att bidra till säkerheten och suveräniteten för Ukraina, sa han till radion.

Nu går den ryska ambassaden till attack mot förslaget – med referenser till Karl XII:s krig mot Ryssland på 1700-talet.

”Vi vill påminna herr Hultqvist om att han inte är den första militära ledaren i Sverige som försöker skrämma Ryssland med makten av sin hjältemodiga armé genom att planera att skicka sina militärer till Ukraina.”skriver ambassaden på Facebook. Läs artikel

Cold Response 2022 sammenlignes med gigantøvelsen Trident Juncture, forsvaretsforum.no

Neste vår, drøye fire år etter den store Nato-øvelsen Trident Juncture, kan Norge igjen vente seg et storinnrykk av utenlandske soldater og militærtmateriell. Da er det nemlig duket for øvelsen Cold Response 2022.

Rundt 35.000 deltagere fra 20 Nato-land og medlem i Partnership for Peace (PfP) skal delta i øvelsen.

Deltagerne skal deles i to parti: Ett sør i Norge ledet av Nato, og ett i nord som skal ledes av Forsvarets operative hovedkvarter (FOH).

– Det vil være den største øvelsen innenfor polarsirkelen siden den kalde krigen, har forsvarssjef Eirik Kristoffersen tidligere sagt til The Barents Observer. Läs artikel

Sveriges nya luftvärn Patriot på plats: ”En stor dag”, dn.se

På torsdagen fick Sveriges luftförsvar en kraftig förstärkning och blir det modernaste i Norden. Då levererades det nya luftvärnssystemet Patriot. Notan är på 12 miljarder kronor och leveransen innebär att de militära banden till USA fördjupas. […]

I augusti 2018 slöts kontrakt med amerikanska armén om köpet. Tre år senare är systemets första enhet på plats vilket är rekordsnabbt jämfört med andra vapenaffärer.

– Vi anskaffade det bästa systemet. Och jag är mycket stolt och nöjd över att det levererades enligt tidtabellen och inom budget, sade försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist under överlämningen där alla tal hölls på engelska.

Hundratals svenskar har utbildats i USA för att lära sig sköta Patriot. Generalmajor Greg Brady från USA:s armé i Europa prisar att Sverige nu får samma system som de amerikanska styrkorna. Polen och flera andra länder i Europa köper eller har köpt Patriot och Sverige sällar sig nu till dem. Läs artikel

Hva bør være norske ambisjoner?

Ståle Ulriksen, forsker og lærer på FHS/Sjøkrigsskolen

Hvilke ambisjoner bør Norge ha på sjøen og havet om det skulle bryte ut en konflikt mellom Vesten og Russland? For å ha en berettiget mening om dette, må man vurdere situasjonen nøye. Hva er egentlig drivkreftene bak den økte spenningen i nord? Hvilke styrker og svakheter har de ulike aktørene, og hvordan vil de utnytte sine muligheter og sikre sine sårbarheter? […]

I dette spillet er Norge, for å si det forenklet, bare interessant på grunn av sin strategiske geografiske posisjon. Kontroll over Norge kan gi både Russland og stormaktene i vest store fordeler. Derfor er det også unødvendig å bekymre oss for hvordan vi skal utløse artikkel fem i Den nordatlantiske traktat. Den mest sannsynlige årsaken til at Russland skulle sette Norge under press er å hindre USA å bruke norsk territorium som oppmarsjområde for angrep mot Russland. Det er lite sannsynlig at USA vil tillate russerne å «nøytralisere» Norge gjennom politisk og/eller militært press uten sverdslag. USA trenger ikke noe vedtak i Brussel for å forsvare Norge. Vi bør heller tenke gjennom hva som skal være de overordnede mål for Norge i en dyp internasjonal krise eller en storkrig mellom øst og vest.

Begrepene «sjøkontroll» og «sjønektelse» brukes ofte feil.  I offentlige dokumenter legges det for eksempel ofte fram et kart over det russiske bastionforsvaret.  Det viser et stort område i Barentshavet der russerne angivelig vil forsøke å oppnå sjøkontroll, og et enda større område i Norskehavet der det hevdes at russerne vil drive sjønektelse. Begge deler presenteres som varige tilstander som skal oppnås og vedlikeholdes. Dette er en litt farlig misforståelse. Nordflåtens hovedoppgave er å beskytte Russlands kjernefysiske andreslagskapasitet, landets strategiske livsforsikring.

Hvis dette er en riktig vurdering, kan Russland tape hele krigen som følge av kamper i nord.  Det kan ikke NATO.  I det store bildet er det altså en kraftig ubalanse i hvilke interesser de involverte aktørene har i nordområdene. […]

Gitt at den økte spenningen i nord har relativt lite med Norge å gjøre kan Norge aldri avskrekke russerne fra å iverksette det de oppfatter som defensive operasjoner i nord. Men om vi klarer å etablere et seigt og desentralisert system for nektelse på kysten, kan det i seg selv være avskrekkende på operasjonelt nivå – det kan påvirke russernes valg av handlemåte.  Og da er vi kanskje tilbake til sakens kjerne, hva skal være Norges ambisjoner i en storkrig?  For meg handler det om å beskytte Norges befolkning, å hindre at norsk territorium blir en slagmark og å sikre Norge en så sterk som mulig posisjon ved forhandlingsbordet når striden er over. Läs artikel

The futility of U.S. military aid and Nato aspirations for Ukraine, defensepriorities.org/

Sascha Glaeser, research associate

President Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in September 2021 and reiterated the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. The meeting suggests the Biden administration intends to continue the failed policy of his two predecessors: providing piecemeal security assistance to Ukraine and supporting its eventual accession to NATO.

ANNUAL U.S. MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE

Ahead of the meeting, President Biden presented a $60 million military aid package to Ukraine, which included Javelin anti-tank missiles, small arms, and ammunition.1 Since hostilities broke out between Ukraine and Russia in 2014, the United States has provided $2.5 billion in security aid to Kyiv, with more than $400 million in the last year alone.2 U.S. security assistance has come in the form of training, equipment, and weaponry, including tactical unmanned aerial vehicles, night vision devices, sniper rifles, small arms, Javelin anti-tank missiles, high-mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles, and Mark VI patrol boats. The United States has also provided secure communications, satellite imagery and analysis support, counter-battery radars, and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures.3 While these weapon systems and equipment increased the warfighting capabilities of Ukraine’s security forces, they failed to meaningfully alter the balance of power between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists or bring an end to hostilities. They also failed to stop Russian interference in Ukraine, ranging from direct military aid to influence operations and cyber-attacks.

Despite these continued military transfers from the United States, the conflict continues into its seventh year because the underlying causes of the war have not been sufficiently addressed—particularly Russia’s concern Ukraine will become a western bulwark by allowing U.S. and NATO forces to station there. Läs artikel

White House promises ‘intensification’ of China engagement after Biden-Xi meeting, responsiblestatecraft.org

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held their first virtual face-to-face meeting of Biden’s presidency last night, lasting three-and-a-half hours and covering the full range of issues critical to the bilateral relationship. Compared to previous interactions between the two sides, the talks were cordial and devoid of unnecessary bluster, with both leaders demonstrating a sober willingness to engage constructively, keep lines of communication open, and work together to tackle common challenges while managing their many differences.

As expected, the meeting did not produce many tangible outcomes. This morning, the two sides did announce an agreement normalizing the issuance of visas for foreign journalists from the two countries, a surprising but welcome step forward. At a Brookings Institution event following up on the talks, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Biden also raised concerns about China’s growing nuclear arsenal — a hot-button issue in Washington at the moment — and hinted that a bilateral dialogue on the topic may materialize at some point down the road. It is likely that other similar initiatives, particularly on the issuance of generic visas, will be announced in the days and weeks ahead. Läs artikel

Försvarsmakten återigen en budgetregulator, cornucopia.cornubot.se

Gårdagens besked om en gemensam budget från de så kallade högerpartierna M+KD+SD innehöll exakt noll ökade anslag till försvaret av rikets suveränitet, svenskarnas frihet och vår demokrati. Försvarsanslagen höjdes inte med en enda krona relativt S+MP:s underfinansiering av försvarsbeslutet, trots att Försvarsmakten själva talar om brister på minst 30 miljarder enbart inom materielanskaffningen, samt 2020 tvingades till neddragningar för att istället bedriva regionalpolitik med nya regementen i Mellansverige man inte ville ha och inte hade råd med. Den klassiska M+KD-politiken från Borg-Reinfeldtregeringen att alltid nedprioritera rikets försvar är alltså tillbaka, nu stödd av SD. Läs artikel