…The redistribution of economic and military power, most notably towards Asia, continues to contribute to the relative decline of the West. Both hard and soft power instruments influence the geostrategic power balance. China’s economy became the world’s biggest in Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) terms in 2014. China’s GDP is projected to overtake the USA in 2026-2028, even with its gradually slowing growth rate. India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms. While the future and exact pace of the shift in global economic power to Asia is difficult to predict, the general direction of change and the historic nature of this shift are clear. The global economic power shift away from the established, advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan is likely to continue to 2035 and beyond…
As a consequence of these developments, a geostrategic power transition is taking place in the Asia-Pacific region that has created a dual hierarchy with a potential for competition: security provided by the USA and economy led by China. This is likely to create uncertainties and insecurities across the region. The growing importance of maritime commerce to all Asia-Pacific economies, combined with the absence or disregard of international laws, treaties or institutions equipped to manage conflicting interests, might also increase the potential for confrontation in the region. Läs rapporten