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Tens of thousands of Malians have taken to the streets in recent months, in protests fueled by pervasive corruption, extreme poverty, and protracted conflict. The unrest risks further destabilizing a region already battling an alarming rise in violent extremism. What’s next for the West African country? […]

An opposition coalition known as the June 5 Movement (M5-RFP), led by prominent cleric Mahmoud Dicko, is calling for the resignation of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in the wake of the country’s April parliamentary elections. The protests were spurred by a Constitutional Court decision to overturn some of the election results, which the opposition says unfairly helped members of Keita’s party remain in office. […]

France. Mali’s former colonial ruler has been drawn deep into the conflict there. The Malian government requested help from Paris in 2013, and a mission the French military initially expected to only last a few weeks has now become what some analysts call France’s “forever war.” Operation Barkhane, as the counterterrorism effort is known, costs more than $1 billion annually, involves almost five thousand French troops, and has resulted in the deaths of forty-four French personnel since 2013. Protesters have also expressed frustration at the lack of progress foreign forces have made, with some calling for French personnel to withdraw. Läs artikel

– De neste fire månedene vil USA fortsette å redusere styrkebidraget i Afghanistan basert på forholdene i landet, opplyser forsvarsdepartementet.

Pentagon sier målet er færre enn 5.000 soldater innen utgangen av november, men legger til at tilstedeværelsen baserer seg på evnen til å gjennomføre oppdrag og ikke antall soldater.

– Som alltid er slike nedtrappinger avhengig av utviklingen i landet og blir gjort etter konsultasjoner med Kongressen og i direkte samarbeid med våre allierte i Nato, opplyses det fra Pentagon.

Kunngjøringen fra forsvarsdepartementet var en ytterlige klargjøring av forsvarsminister Mark Espers uttalelse i helgen. Da sa han at en slik styrkereduksjon først kunne skje når de var sikre på at USA «ikke trues av terrorister som kommer fra Afghanistan».Läs artikel

A shift is taking place in global military thinking. NATO, arguably the most successful military alliance in history, is slowly but steadily edging toward casting China as an outright military competitor. Previously, the collective West avoided involving NATO in the context of the rising China. […]

Military training missions have been a common element of NATO involvement in the Middle East. The alliance also responds to terrorism, cyber-threats, and disinformation. Moreover, it enjoys special partnerships (consultative in nature) with Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, and Mongolia.

However, China’s military and economic rise, ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and growing appetite in the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the last decade have brought it into sharp opposition with the US. The latter now sees NATO playing a bigger role in Eurasian affairs, which means taking a tougher stance toward Beijing through the development of a new vision for its outdated Euro-Atlantic-centric model. […]

Though that shift in thinking is taking place within NATO, the alliance remains attached to its vision and wishes to avoid casting China as an outright military enemy. It leaves open the possibility for cooperation, as statements by NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg attest. In recent interviews, Stoltenberg said, “[NATO] does not see China as the new enemy,” “This is not about moving NATO into the South China Sea,” and “It’s about taking into account that China is coming closer to us—in the Arctic, in Africa, investing heavily in our infrastructure in Europe, in cyberspace.” Läs artikel

On July 29, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced new changes to U.S. basing posture in Europe that would result in more than 10,000 troops returning to the United States from bases in Germany, followed by a relocation of military personnel to Poland and Mons, Belgium. While most of the media attention has focused on the redeployment of forces from Europe back to the United States, a new strategic decision was made by the U.S. that will result in an increased military presence in NATO’s new front yard: the Black Sea.

During his Pentagon press conference, Esper announced that a U.S. Stryker brigade would be sent to the Black Sea in what will be the first significant U.S. military ground forces deployment to the region. The Black Sea has been the epicenter of Russia’s revisionist ambitions since its 2008 war with Georgia and its 2014 invasion and occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea and invasion of Donbass. To highlight the changes in U.S. defense posture in the Black Sea, Esper described the move in the following strategic terms:

“Look at what we’re moving. What we’re doing is … we’re moving forces out of central Europe — Germany, where they had been since the Cold War, since I first traveled there in the early 1980s, and we’re now moving — we’re following, in many ways, the boundary east, where our newest allies are. So into the Black Sea region … That’s why it’s a strategic laydown that enhances deterrence, strengthens the allies, reassures them.” Läs artikel

Turkiet har skickat ett prospekteringsfartyg till Greklands ekonomiska zon, eskorterat av den turkiska flottan. Grekland har svarat med att höja beredskapen hos sin egna flotta. De två ärkefienderna har utkämpat krig förr, men frågan är om Grekland i slutändan vågar göra något givet de rådande omständigheterna. EU kommer i alla fall inte våga säga ett pip av rädsla för Turkiets flyktingvapen.

Han kritiserar Facebook och Google för att manipulera med hjälp av artificiell intelligens. Till hösten ska världsförbättraren Max Tegmark ta upp kampen mot jättarna – med en gratis app mot fake news. Nu utses AI-professorn till Årets svensk i världen.

En app som berättar att en artikel är hårt vinklad, att den utelämnar viktiga fakta eller att skribenten är anställd av ett oljebolag. Det är vad svensken Max Tegmark och åtta av hans studenter vid Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, i Boston i USA sysslar med denna coronasommar. […]

– Det folk klickar mest på är saker som gör dem riktigt förbannade och saker som de håller med om. Det är mycket lättare att hitta saker som folk blir förbannade på om man tillåter sig att ljuga. Fake news och polariseringen där människor sitter i separata filterbubblor är resultatet av Googles och Facebooks algoritmer. Läs artikel

6. og 9. august 1945, Hiroshima og Nagasaki. To datoer og stedsnavn som representerer de aller svarteste øyeblikk i vår felles historie når det kommer til vurderingen av menneskers verdi. Menneskeverdet ble vurdert som en brikke som ikke var viktig nok i det strategiske, militære spillet da beslutningen ble tatt om å slippe ikke bare én, men to atombomber, med tre dagers mellomrom, over Japan. […]

Forestillingen om at atombombene var årsaken til at Japan kapitulerte og 2. verdenskrig tok slutt, lever i beste velgående på museer rundt omkring. Men det er altså høyst diskutabelt om det faktisk var slik. Likeledes er det på grensen til useriøst å hevde at atomvåpnene har forhindret krig siden august 1945.

Det viktigste er imidlertid at sannsynligheten for bruk av atomvåpen i krig og konflikt øker år for år; inhumane massedrapsvåpen som ikke skiller mellom stridende og sivile, slik alle krigførende parter er forpliktet til etter internasjonal humanitær rett og med kraft til å utslette vår sivilisasjon.

Den utviklingen må stanses! Läs artikel

Atombombingen av Hiroshima og Nagasaki forkortet krigen i Stillehavet , og sparte dermed utallige liv, skriver Harald Høiback i Forsvarets forum 7. august. Ikke nok med det: «vårt rettighets- og velferdssamfunn er basert på den amerikanske atomparaplyen». Faktisk er det få oppfinnelser som har spart så mange menneskeliv som atombomben, kan vi lese.

Dette er spennende hypoteser. Men har de empirisk belegg? […]

For det første er det ingenting som tyder på at beslutningene ble nøye overveid. Atombombene ble bygget under forutsetning av at de ville brukt – og det ble de. Det lille som var av diskusjoner innad i den amerikanske regjeringen, dreide seg i all hovedsak om hvor bombene skulle slippes, ikke om de skulle slippes. Her er møtereferatene tydelige.

For det andre kan det virke som om tallene Truman og Stimson oppga som estimater for amerikanske tap, var sterkt overdrevet. Som Høiback klokt påpeker, vil vi aldri kunne vite med sikkerhet hvor mange som ville blitt drept dersom krigen hadde fortsatt. Det beste vi har, er amerikanernes egne estimater: Ifølge militærets utregning fra sommeren 1945, ville en fullskala invasjon av Japan i verste fall koste rundt 46.000 amerikanske soldaters liv. […]

Trumans stabssjef, admiral William Leahy, mente bruken av «dette barbariske våpenet» hadde vært «helt uten materiell betydning for krigen mot Japan. Japanerne var allerede beseiret og klare til å overgi seg». Noen få uker før Hiroshima, da Stimson forklarte atomplanen til general Eisenhower, skal sistnevnte ha gitt uttrykk for at han var imot bruk av atomvåpen, av to grunner: «For det første var japanerne klare til å overgi seg, og det var ikke nødvendig å slå dem med den fæle greia. For det andre hatet jeg å se landet vårt bli det første til å bruke et slikt våpen». Läs artikel

As observers speak of a new Cold War between the United States and China, policymakers seem to misunderstand Sino-Russian relations in the Arctic as an alliance. This stems in part from the lack of a quantified framework to understand the ongoing shifts in the international system: the return of nationalism, fractures in the rules-based liberal order, and the rise of nontraditional security threats such as climate change. The misreading of the relationship in the Arctic also stems from a lack of subject-matter expertise among policymakers on what drives Sino-Russian ties—a shortfall that will shape future understanding of the Arctic region. […]

Russia and China’s Arctic partnership is not an alliance—it is driven by business. Despite mutually beneficial interests in the region, commercial realpolitik is at the heart of their engagement. For now, the partnership in the Arctic navigates existing fault lines, such as Beijing’s failure to acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s nonalignment in the developing India-China conflict. Any regional cooperation is due to their shared interest in maintaining domestic stability. Long-term economic development ventures and the viability of non-Western multilateral bodies, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, are critical for their shared vision of world order. Läs artikel

Malian opposition figurehead Mahmoud Dicko on Sunday suggested that France had moved behind the scenes to protect the premier of its former colony which has been mired for months in a political crisis.

”Why is France interfering in the choice of prime minister for Mali?” the influential Saudi-trained imam asked, speaking at a news conference in the capital Bamako.

[…] Since 2013, France, with the Serval and then Barkhane operations, has been militarily engaged in the Sahel and today has some 4,500 soldiers deployed in this vast area. Forty-three soldiers have since lost their lives, including 13 last November, in a helicopter crash. […]

“The drama of Kouré is all the more worrying as it takes place a few tens of kilometers from the capital, Niamey, insists Bertrand Badie. This is further proof that the strategy implemented with Barkhane and the G5S is not the most effective. Not only does it not attenuate the conflict in any way, it exacerbates it, ”continues this expert in international relations.

In recent years, France has not been as welcome as at the start of its commitment decided by François Hollande. “Unlike the United States, which had suffered Al Qaeda attacks on its own soil, France seems to promote a preventive war in the Sahel, which provokes a desire for revenge on the part of Africans”, underlined a few months ago Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos, research director at IRD (Research Institute for Development) in an interview with L’Opinion. This mistrust was all the more reinforced as France was able to be involved in spite of itself in armed abuses by its African allies.“ […]

Two years after a pan-European military initiative was first proposed to help tackle the Sahel’s Islamist insurgency, the Takuba task force is finally becoming reality, as its first troops arrive amid the coronavirus pandemic, political turmoil and spreading unrest.

A group of roughly 100 Estonian and French special forces are the first on the ground to comprise Takuba, the Tuareg name for a sabre. Some 60 Czech troops are to join them in October, and another 150 Swedish ones by early next year. Estonia, Belgium and more recently Italy count among others to announce troops for the mission intended to help Mali and Niger forces fight extremist groups in the region. […]

And despite recent military victories, they say, chances of eradicating the conflict are remote, unless the Europeans and Africans offer more holistic, long-term solutions.

“If you have a gushing wound on your neck, you don’t put a plaster on it,” said Andrew Yaw Tchie, a senior Africa security expert at the London-based Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, or RUSI. […]

Overall, the United Nations estimates terrorist attacks against civilian and military targets in three of the most vulnerable Sahel countries — Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger — has increased fivefold since 2016.

In a recent interview with VOA, J. Peter Pham, the top U.S. envoy to the Sahel region, noted extremist attacks in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger had increased 40 percent in the first quarter of this year alone.

Asked whether counter-insurgency efforts were winning, Pham added, “It depends on what time horizon you use and what definition you use for winning.”  […]

In London, RUSI’s Tchie draws parallels between the Islamist groups in the Sahel and Somalia, where the al-Shabab terrorist group has grown and spread despite years of U.S. and other military efforts. In both regions, he says, extremist groups have scored points in local communities, he says, in ways national and foreign intervention has not.

“It delivers justice, it delivers humanitarian relief to communities, and people feel more secure,” he said of al-Shabab. “It’s not that people want to go to al-Shabab. But when they need security, justice and things to work for them, al-Shabab delivers.”  Läs artikel

Läs  även kommentar till det svenska deltagandet i Takuba.