Redaktionen

With negotiations for a peace agreement in Ukraine now underway, and Washington signalling a possible détente with the Kremlin, European states are doing everything they can to obstruct the process. New sanctions are being slapped on Moscow. Weapons are being rushed to the frontlines. Money is being freed up for rearmament, with Britain, France and Germany aiming to increase their defence budgets to at least 3% of GDP, and the EU planning to create a ‘voluntary fund’ of up to €40 billion for military aid. Macron and Starmer are seeking to deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of a possible ceasefire, supposedly to offer ‘reassurance’ – despite the no-brainer that only neutral soldiers could act as credible peacekeepers. […]

While some EU leaders have half-heartedly recognized Trump’s demand for diplomacy, the bloc’s dominant position since February 2022 – that the fighting must not end without an absolute victory for Ukraine – remains largely unchanged. Its foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has long opposed efforts to de-escalate the conflict, declaring last December that she and her allies would do ‘whatever it takes’ to crush the invading army. She was recently echoed by the Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen, who suggested that ‘peace in Ukraine is actually more dangerous than war’. Last month, when negotiators raised the possibility of lifting certain sanctions to end hostilities in the Black Sea, the European Commission spokesperson on foreign affairs, Anitta Hipper, affirmed that ‘Unconditional withdrawal of all Russian military forces from the entire territory of Ukraine would be one of the main preconditions’. Läs artikel

[…] Finally, there is also a floor of a 10% tariff on all countries covering those that run bilateral trade deficits with the U.S. The range of tariffs runs from the minimum of 10% for many countries (that are not enumerated in the linked annex) to 49% in the case of Cambodia, 48% for Myanmar, 46% for Vietnam, 45% for Laos, 44% for Sri Lanka, and 37% for Bangladesh. Among larger trading partners, the tariffs are set at 34% for China, 24% for Japan, and 20% for the EU. This set of tariffs is also additive to those already levied, particularly significant in the case of China, whose exports will now face a minimum tariff of at least 54%. […]

The reciprocal tariff measures increase the distance between the U.S. and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and they come a little more than a week after America suspended its payment of dues to the entity. As the U.S. increasingly withdraws from the system, it remains to be seen whether other countries can revitalize the WTO as a dispute-resolution mechanism, perhaps by using its opt-in binding arbitration system, the MPIA, of which Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, Japan, and Mexico (among others) are members. The tariffs will likely weaken U.S. diplomatic efforts to present “Chinese overproduction” as the biggest threat to the system. Läs artikel

Russia’s liquefied natural gas company Novatek presses on with its sanctioned flagship project. In recent days satellite images confirm two noteworthy developments at the project high in the Russian Arctic.

Power plant modules delivered to the plant in November 2024 from Chinese manufacturer Wison have been unloaded and installed adjacent to the production lines during the winter months. The units will provide external power supply to the second, and in the future third, train of the plant.

The redesign became necessary following the departure from Russia of American supplier Baker Hughes before delivering all required turbines.

Chinese firm Wison provided the replacement power plant in violation of sanctions during an elaborate logistics scheme uncovered by HNN last year. The U.S. government subsequently sanctioned the company’s Zhoushan unit for the illegal delivery.

The seeming installation of the power modules throughout the past few months shows that Novatek continues pushing ahead with the completion of the second production line. Läs artikel

[…] Det er riktignok sannsynlig at det i det norsk-amerikanske etterretningssamarbeidet er langt mer gjensidig avhengighet enn det er i relasjonen mellom USA og Ukraina, men det gjelder bare så lenge amerikanske myndigheter frykter de russiske ubåtene med strategiske atomvåpen. Donald Trump er så uberegnelig at vi ikke lenger kan basere vår sikkerhetspolitiske tenkning på at USA vil ha egeninteresse av å overvåke nordområdene sammen med oss.

Norske myndigheters problem er at de ikke offentlig kan si at de nå lurer på solidi­teten i USA-samarbeidet. Det skal ikke være Norge som skyver USA fra seg. Norske politikere må si at den amerikanske sikkerhetsgarantien nå er akkurat like god som den var før Donald Trump ble president. Stensønes og de andre forsvarstoppene må understreke at samarbeidet med USA og de andre NATO-allierte er akkurat like tett og godt som det alltid har vært. Om de farer med direkte løgn, eller bare fordreier virkeligheten, er ikke så farlig. De har lov til det av hensyn til rikets sikkerhet. Läs artikel

When United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio joins European allies in Brussels on Thursday, both sides will do their best to smile for the cameras and promise that all is well in NATO.

On the surface all seems normal: The agenda calls for a discussion on defense budgets (long a cause of American gripes) and aid for Ukraine. Behind the scenes, though, a storm is brewing. [….]

As the meeting takes place, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will be in Greenland showing support for the island that both Denmark and Greenland insist will never join the U.S. Anxious to avoid a clash within NATO over the issue, Secretary-General Mark Rutte dodged questions about the U.S. claims to the island on Wednesday. Asked who should control Greenland, he replied: ”The question has to do with the wider issue of how to defend the Arctic.” Läs artikel

[…] Robin Häggblom, a Finnish defense expert told Breaking Defense. “There is a worry [including in Finland] that Russia turning … to a wartime economy means that they will have problems going back to some kind of of peaceful coexistence, even if somehow the Ukraine situation magically was resolved.” […]

Häggblom commented that the decision to make Army modernization a priority is also “significant” because aging East German, Polish and Russian equipment acquired during the 1990s — such as heavy artillery systems, rocket launchers, armored personnel carriers and the BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle — are “rapidly approaching obsolescence.”

“All these [weapon systems] will need to be replaced rather soon,” said Häggblom, adding that new investment in “primary units of the army” will also be needed, related to more modern helmets and weapon sights. Additionally, he expects a decision on an upgrade or replacement of German made Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks to go ahead “very soon.” Plans to bolster air defense capabilities are already in motion, courtesy of the 2023 decision to acquire David’s Sling, produced by Israel’s Rafael.

In parallel, Finland has donated “quite a lot of ex-Soviet artillery … to Ukraine [and] that has also increased the urgency of getting these replacements on the books,” noted Häggblom. […]

In a separate statement released today, Helsinki said it is “initiating preparations to withdraw from the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction (the so-called Ottawa Convention).” The change in policy, according to the statement, is due to the weapons being able to “complement the capabilities of the Defence Forces.”  Läs artikel

Trump ønsker «America First». Men, et viktig hinder på veien er USAs gjeldssituasjon. Statsgjelden er stor, og utgjør over 120 prosent av bnp, med økte renter er det dyrere å betjene gjelden. Og det stopper ikke her, underskuddet er stort, og ifølge USAs budsjettkontor vil gjelden dobles innen 2035.

Det er ikke bare militærmaktens «overstretch» som gjør at stormakter faller; gjeld og dårlig økonomi kan også skape nedgang. Den franske revolusjonen startet med en finansiell krise. Krigsgjeld og sløsing førte til sult og økte skatter, som i siste instans endte med voldelig revolt. […]

I tillegg, USA har selvsagt også en særlig posisjon som verdens reservevaluta, og de kan i prinsippet trykke penger uten de samme negative konsekvensene. Men heller ikke det er noen lett vei.

Ingen vet hvilken strategi Trump vil følge. Det er vanskelige valg. Dersom Trump ikke gjør noe med gjelden, vil trolig «Fergusons lov» spille seg ut og USAs ledende rolle svekkes. Dersom Trump forfølger en av de siste strategiene, vil tilliten til USA også svekkes.

Trump anklaget Zelenskyj for å ha dårlige kort – hans egne er heller ikke så sterke. Norge er gjennom Fondet stor långiver til USA, og vi bør tenke nøye på hvordan vi spiller våre. Läs artikel

[…] David Trads, tidligere redaktør i de danske avisene Information, Nyhedsavisen og USA-korrespondent for Berlingske, skriver i et debattinnlegg i Altinget, at Danmark umiddelbart bør be om å aktivere Natos artikkel fire.

«Partene vil rådslå med hverandre når som helst en av dem mener at noen parts territoriale ukrenkelighet, politiske uavhengighet eller sikkerhet er truet.»

rads mener at Det danske kongeriket og Riksfellesskapet er truet.

– Artikkel 4 er et kort som sjelden trekkes – faktisk har det bare skjedd syv ganger siden Nato ble etablert i 1948 – og det har aldri skjedd fordi et medlemsland har følt seg truet av et annet medlemsland. Akkurat nå truer USA oss, skriver han og legger til: – Danmark, lille Danmark, takler ikke presset alene. Resten av Nato må bistå oss.  Läs artikel

Vi behöver förbereda oss på att de politiska relationerna med Ryssland öppnas upp småningom, sa president Alexander Stubb på måndagen. Enligt presidenten har diskussionerna redan börjat på ett europeiskt plan.

– Ingenting ändrar det faktum att Ryssland är och förblir vårt grannland och att vi har en gränsrelation på 1 340 kilometer, sa Stubb.

De diplomatiska relationerna har fortsatt genom kriget i Ukraina, men nu handlar det om att återuppta politisk kontakt. Enligt Stubb finns ändå villkor. Dels hänger det på när Ryssland slutar kriga i Ukraina, dels så måste det ske koordinerat mellan europeiska länder.

Kremls talesperson Dmitrij Peskov kommenterade utspelet på tisdagen. President Vladimir Putin är öppen för att normalisera relationerna, om Finland har en vilja att återuppbygga banden.

Enligt Peskov är relationerna för närvarande i ett ”sorgligt” tillstånd, rapporterar Reuters. Läs artikel