Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 fundamentally altered the security landscape in Europe. Among European NATO member states there has emerged a consensus that military investments present the only viable means of security. Alongside support for Ukraine, these investments include massive reinforcements in allied defence and deterrence capabilities. A key assumption behind this wave of militarization is that a Russian victory in Ukraine could ultimately embolden Russia to attack the alliance. As NATO Secretary General Mark Rütte warned last Thursday, ‘We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way.’
While European NATO members’ defence planning revolves around worst-case assumptions about Russia’s aggressive intentions beyond Ukraine, another and arguably a more probable risk is being neglected: inadvertent escalation. In addition to the potential expansion of the war in Ukraine, the risk of inadvertent escalation is particularly high in Northern Europe, where related tensions and militarization have created destabilizing subregional dynamics of their own. The Baltic Sea region has already seen several close encounters between NATO and Russian forces. Läs artikel