[…] A brief look at the map is enough to give the general idea, the basic premise is that both Finland and Sweden are dependent on seaborne trade coming over the North Sea and into the Baltic Sea. This is particularly true for Finland, though for Sweden as well even with the presence of Gothenburg and a number of other ports of varying sizes and capabilities in the southern and western parts of the country, a number of key ports and naval facilities sit on shores opposite of the Kaliningrad exclave and the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet in Baltiysk. With that in mind, the vulnerability of these supply lines is also obvious. […]
These considerations are far from pure hypotheticals, as shown by the recent Finnish decision to begin formal planning during 2025 for laying a European gauge railway – Finland has the old Russian gauge which at 1,524 mm is wider than the 1,435 mm standard – from the Swedish border to Kemi, and possibly onwards to Oulu as well as to Rovaniemi. The latter is of interest as one of the main locations for the new NATO Forward Land Forces and as the main logistics hub of the Finnish High North. However, while the Finnish part of such a project would not be insignificant – the planning alone is budgeted at 20 million Euro (235 million NOK) with any eventual building of tracks to Oulu and Rovaniemi costing billions of euros – it is hard to shake the feeling that the Finnish planning might not fully take into account the state of the infrastructure in Sweden and Norway. The expectations from Finland for both host nation support by Norway and Sweden for transiting units and military equipment, as well as being able to receive supplies over what in many cases are small and winding roads might not be aligned with the situation on the ground in Norway and Sweden. In turn, this raises questions about funding for cross-border infrastructure where from a Swedish point of view traffic between Norway and Finland puts a strain on Swedish roads and railroads, but it would be Norwegian ports and Finland as the eventual destination that would reap the largest benefits. Läs artikel