Må vi føye oss etter USA i ett og alt? argumentagder.no

Jacob Børresen, pensjonert offiser med lang nasjonal og internasjonal erfaring

[…] Jeg er, og har alltid vært, en sterk tilhenger av medlemskapet i NATO og av alliansen med USA. De er en nødvendig konsekvens av vår geografiske beliggenhet som randstat til Russland og kyststat til de militærstrategisk viktige nordlige havområder. Men jeg har ikke noe behov for å slutte meg til den naive og kunnskapsløse hyllesten til USA og alt amerikansk som for tiden preger deler av den sikkerhetspolitiske debatt. Og heller ikke til den like kunnskapsløse og «monomane» demoniseringen av Putins Russland. Jeg har tvert imot sett det som en oppgave å forsøke å se saken fra to sider, fordi jeg tror det er avgjørende viktig for et lite land som er henvist til å skave seg ut et slags handlingsrom i spenningsfeltet mellom de to stormaktene Russland og USA. […]

Og etter i flere år å ha jobbet tett med amerikanerne har jeg ingen illusjoner om at de er til stede i Norge og norske nærområder av veldedighet eller takknemlighet. De er her fordi det er i tråd med amerikanske sikkerhetsinteresser, ikke noe annet. Når sikkerhetsinteressene tilsier en annen prioritet blir de borte, slik de f eks ble i lange perioder på 1960/70-tallet og igjen på 1990/2000-tallet. Det betyr at vi er henvist til i større grad enn vi er villige til i dag, å ta ansvar for vår egen sikkerhet, og holde oss med et relevant nasjonalt forsvar.

Mitt konstruktive alternative forslag er noe så kjedelig som å gå tilbake til politikken under den kalde krigen, med vekslende balanse mellom sikring og beroligelse, integrasjon og avskjerming, kombinert med et troverdig norsk forsvar. Läs artikel

Russia moves naval exercise that rattled EU member Ireland, newsobserver.com

Russia says it will relocate naval exercises off the coast of Ireland after Dublin raised concerns about them amid a tense dispute with the West over expansion of the NATO alliance and fears that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. The Feb. 3-8 exercises were to be held 240 kilometers (150 miles) off southwestern Ireland — in international waters but within Ireland’s exclusive economic zone. Ireland is a member of the 27-nation European Union but not a member of NATO. […]

The decision was a rare concession amid the escalating tensions surrounding Russia’s massing of an estimated 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine and its demands that NATO promise never to allow Ukraine to join the alliance, stop the deployment of NATO weapons near Russian borders and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe. Läs artikel

 

Europeans set two-week deadline to review untenable Mali situation, euronews.com

European allies agreed on Friday to draw up plans within two weeks for how to continue their fight against Islamist militants in Mali, Denmark’s defence minister said, after France said the situation with the Malian junta had become untenable.

Tensions have escalated between Mali and its international partners after the junta failed to organise an election following two military coups. It has also deployed Russian private military contractors, which some European countries have said is incompatible with their mission.

“There was a clear perception that this is not about Denmark, it’s about a Malian military junta which wants to stay in power. They have no interest in a democratic election, which is what we have demanded,” Defence Minister Trine Bramse told Reuters. Läs artikel

Why Intermediate-Range Missiles are a Focal Point in the Ukrraine Crisis, warontherocks.com

Brennan Deveraux, major in the U.S. Army

[…] While it is folly to discount the potential that Putin fully intends to use force to achieve his strategic goals, it is also unwise to dismiss a potential path to resolution, a compromise that may let all parties save face. The return of theater-support missiles, brought on by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty’s demise, challenges Russia’s security and undoubtedly influences the country’s decision-making. Since the treaty’s end, Russia’s actions have sent a clear message that it would not let intermediate-range missiles reemerge in Europe. However, the response from the West not only failed to address Russia’s concerns but treated the reintegration of these missiles as a foregone conclusion, focusing almost exclusively on the relative advantage that their deployment could provide to the United States and NATO. While NATO expansion may very well be the primary driver of Russia’s actions toward Ukraine, the return of these strategic missiles is also a factor that the United States should consider.

Consequently, while reversing NATO expansion is a non-starter for many in the West, a potential arms agreement concerning the formerly banned missiles is not only a realistic goal, but it is something that all parties have expressed a willingness to work towards. In this context, if successful negotiations occur, missiles will be the likely focal point. Consequently, the United States may have to concede the tactical and operational benefits that theater-support missiles could provide in Europe for the potential strategic victory of defusing the tensions on the Ukraine border. Läs artikel

Sankt Petersburg – en utmaning för Finland, demokraatti.fi

Kaj Bärlund, minister

Under olika skeden av förhandlingarna och det politiska taktikspelet inför vinterkriget gjorde Stalins Ryssland en rad territoriella krav gentemot Finland. Han hänvisade till behovet att kunna försvara Sankt Petersburg mot eventuella angrepp från Tyskland via Finland. De här kraven ville Finland inte veta av eftersom man inte hade avsikt att angripa Sankt Petersburg eller låta någon annan via Finland göra det. Så Paasikivis och Tanners förhandlingar med Stalin och Molotov blev resultatlösa. Vinterkriget bröt ut. Läs artikel

Illegal: The Recourse to Force to Recover Occupied Territory and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, academic.oup.com

Tom Ruys, professor of International Law, Ghent Rolin-Jaequemyns International Law Institute (GRILI) and Felipe Rodríguez Silvestre doctoral researcher, Ghent Rolin-Jaequemyns International Law Institute (GRILI),

[…] Indeed, prior to the 2020 conflict, the Nagorno-Karabakh region was widely regarded as belonging de jure to Azerbaijan, but as being unlawfully occupied – for more than 25 years – by Armenia.2 The self-proclaimed ‘Republic of Artsakh’ was seen as nothing but a puppet regime under the control of Armenia.3 Against this background, the following question arises: When part of one state’s territory is occupied by another state for a prolonged duration, can the former state have lawful recourse to military force to recover its land? Clearly, the relevance of this question extends far beyond the Caucasus (one need only consider the cases of the Golan Heights or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus). Accordingly, rather than seeking to identify who was the ‘aggressor’ in the 2020 confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan – both protagonists accused each other of having triggered the hostilities – this essay tackles the above question in a more general fashion. Upon weighing the arguments, we believe a negative answer is in order. Läs artikel

When You are Done in the USA, Jonas, You are Welcome to the North, highnorthnews.com

Arne O. Holm, chefredaktör för High North News

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has visited the White House. Here, he met with an American president who, according to Norwegian daily VG, wanted to hear about Norway’s experience with having Russia as its neighbor. Next time Støre goes traveling, he should go to Finnmark.

Here, too, there is wondering about how our relationship with Russia should be understood.

Europe has not faced a larger military crisis since the 1960s, when American and Soviet canons pointed at each other on the border between East and West Berlin. When the Berlin Wall came down later, in 1989, we called off the Cold War and started serious peace cooperation between the East and the West. Läs artikel

Ryssland hotar bryta relationerna med USA om det nya amerikanska sanktionspaketet blir verklighet, svenska.yle.fi

Moskva skärpte retoriken mot väst på fredagen och hotade med att bryta relationerna med USA om USA inför nya sanktioner.

Utrikesminister Sergej Lavrov sa att de nya sanktioner som USA förbereder mot Ryssland skulle innebära att relationerna mellan USA och Ryssland bryts. Lavrov hänvisade speciellt till hotet om att utesluta Ryssland från det internationella betalningsförmedlingssystemet Swift.

Både USA, EU och Nato har hotat med sällsynt hårda sanktioner ifall Ryssland invaderar Ukraina. Ryssland har upprepade gånger förnekat att landet planerar en invasion.

– Det här sanktionspaketet inklusive avstängning från de västkontrollerade finansiella ekonomiska systemen skulle innebära att relationerna bryts, sa Lavrov.

Utrikesministern försäkrade samtidigt att Ryssland inte viker från sina krav på säkerhetsgarantier.

– Det finns inget utrymme för kompromisser, sa Lavrov till ryska radiostationer på fredagen. Läs artikel

Därför är förstärkningen på Gotland ingen beredskapshöjning, forsvarsmakten.se

Truppförflyttningarna och patrulleringen på Gotland var i varje fall ingen beredskapshöjning. Det var inte ens någon förändring av verksamheten. Om något var det en anpassning av den grundberedskap Försvarsmakten alltid har i fredstid.

Försvarsmaktens beredskapssystem utgår från tre situationer som samhället kan befinna sig i: normalläge, säkerhetspolitisk kris och väpnat angrepp.

I de två förstnämnda har Försvarsmakten grundberedskap. Höjd beredskap, vid risk för eller vid väpnat angrepp, kräver ett regeringsbeslut. Läs pressmeddelande

Julian Assange can ask Supreme Court to consider extradition case, bbc.com

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has won the right to ask the Supreme Court to block his extradition to the US.

The High Court ruled on Monday he had an arguable point of law that Supreme Court justices may want to consider. The ruling means Mr Assange can petition the UK’s highest court for a hearing, stalling any extradition from the UK for now.

He is wanted in the US over the publication of thousands of classified documents in 2010 and 2011. Lord Burnett, the Lord Chief Justice, said Mr Assange’s case had raised a legal question over the circumstances in which judges received and considered assurances from the US about how he would be treated in prison. Läs artikel

Blinken’s response to Russia NATO demand is frankly disturbing, responsiblestatecraft.org

Marcus Stanley, Advocacy Director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Yesterday the U.S. State Department submitted written responses to Russian negotiating positions in the ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations over the Ukraine crisis. The exact text and details of the responses are confidential. However, Secretary of State Blinken’s statement regarding the content of the U.S. response is disturbing. At a press briefing, Blinken reaffirmed the U.S. refusal to engage with the core Russian position that the Ukraine should not be permitted to enter NATO, adding that in the written response “we make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend — including Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances.”

This is problematic from several perspectives. At the most basic level, it indicates that the U.S. is refusing to seek compromise regarding what Russia believes to be a core national security interest, namely that the U.S. should not make an alliance commitment to the military defense of Ukraine. Russia views Ukraine as a strategically critical nation due to its location directly on the Russian border and deep historical and cultural ties to Eastern Ukraine. Läs artikel

Explainer: What are NATO’s next steps if Russia invades Ukraine? reuters.com

[…] For the moment, the 30-member North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is working with Ukraine to modernise its armed forces. Canada operates a training programme in Ukraine, while Denmark is also stepping up efforts to bring Ukraine’s military up to NATO standards. The alliance has also said it will help Ukraine defend against cyber attacks and is providing secure communications equipment for military command. […]

The United States, Britain and the Baltic states are sending weapons to Ukraine, including anti-tank missiles, small arms and boats. Turkey has sold drones to Ukraine that the Ukrainian military has used in eastern Ukraine against Russian-backed separatists.

However, Germany is against sending arms to Ukraine. Berlin has instead promised a complete field hospital and the necessary training for Ukrainian troops to operate it, worth about $6 million. […]

The U.S. Department of Defense has put about 8,500 American troops on heightened alert. Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and four F-16 warplanes to Lithuania. Spain has sent a minesweeper and a frigate to join NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

Madrid is also considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria, while the Netherlands has also offered two F-35 warplanes to Bulgaria from April. France may send troops to Romania under NATO command. Läs artikel