First Baltic Sea voyage for Russia’s 4th generation multi-purpose sub, thebarentsobserver.com

Thomas Nilsen, editor of the Independent Barents Observer

Last autumn, the “Severodvinsk” test launched the submarine version of Russia’s new hypersonic Tsirkon cruise missile in the Barents Sea. It is unclear whether the sub is armed with the Tsirkon as it now sails into the Baltic Sea, the first-time voyage in the area for Russia’s 4th generation multi-purpose nuclear-powered submarines of the Yasen class

The Danish Armed Forces confirms in a tweet that “Severodvinsk” now is in transit from Skagerak to the Baltic Sea. The navy’s tug “Pamir” and landing ship “Ivan Gren” sail together with the submarine.

Spokesperson with the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, Major Elisabeth Eikeland, would not comment on whether the submarine sailed submerged or surfaced along the coast of Norway.

In previous years, nuclear-powered submarines sailing inter-fleet transfer en route from the Northern Fleet to the Naval Parade in St. Petersburg have sailed surfaced all along the coast of Norway, likely because the vessels have not been prepared for combat readiness. Läs artikel

Nato-medlemskap – paradigmskifte för det svenska försvaret, kkrva.se

Rolf Andersson, advokat och medutgivare av alliansfriheten.se Lars-Gunnar Liljestrand, bergsingenjör och medutgivare av alliansfriheten.se

ÖB:s nya Militärstrategiska doktrin MSD 22 är den för stunden gällande riktlinjen för försvaret. Den ersätter MSD 2016.

ÖB har hamnat i ett slags limbo då planerna för ett svenskt Nato-medlemskap tills vidare är oklara på grund av Turkiets krav. Vi får se vart det tar vägen. Antagningsprocessen kommer att ta tid. ÖB varnar för att innan den är fullt genomförd så kommer detta att öppna för påverkansmöjligheter för en antagonist. Och därför skall försvaret verka enligt MSD 22 under denna period.

Det svenska försvaret är ett tröskelförsvar med syftet att avhålla en fiende från angrepp men för det fall att detta misslyckas skall försvaret föra en uppehållande strid och undvika att besegras till dess att vi får stöd utifrån. Strategin är beslutad av regering och riksdag och ÖB har i uppgift att omsätta den för försvaret.

Det handlar inte om ett territorialförsvar och uppdraget från politikerna är inte uttalat att hela landet skall försvaras. Följaktligen ställer inte heller ÖB det målet i MSD 22.

Kritik av tröskelförsvaret och argument för ett territorialförsvar av hela landet har vi (tillsammans med Sven Hirdman och Anders Björnsson) tidigare framfört i en artikel på Kkrva.se 

ÖB säger att en Nato-anslutning betyder stora förändringar och ett paradigmskifte för det svenska försvaret. MSD 22 beskriver dock inte vari förändringarna kan komma att bestå.

Klart är dock att ett Nato-medlemskap medför krav på det svenska försvaret att gå längre i utformningen av ett insatsförsvar som kan sättas in utanför landets gränser. Nationellt territorialförsvar för hela landet kommer inte att vara prioriterat av Nato-kommandot i Bryssel.

Det paradigmskifte som ÖB nu talar om i MSD 22 men som inte närmare beskrivs var aldrig uppe till debatt inför Sveriges Nato-ansökan och finns inte med i regeringens säkerhetspolitiska rapport, som då uppgavs vara det viktigaste underlaget för beslutet om medlemskap.

Att det handlar om betydande och säkert djupgående förändringar av hela Försvarsmakten är uppenbart, eftersom ÖB i MSD 22 understryker att:

”Detta kommer att medföra en revidering av Försvarsmaktens uppdrag, vår doktrin och innehållet i vårt militärstrategiska koncept.” Läs artikel

A sobering view of the Ukraine war from behind the new ‘Iron Curtain’, thehill.com

Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities and a visiting professor at the Watson Institute of Brown University

[…] Many Western strategists are starting to agree with Henry Kissinger’s advice that peace negotiations should begin. And yes, that might well mean pressuring Kyiv to come to the table and grapple with unpleasant realities. A future Ukraine, albeit in a smaller form, still could thrive and build a prosperous, secure future under European tutelage.

Putin, Erdogan and Iran’s Raisi pledge cooperation against ‘terrorists’ in Syria, france24.com

Russia, Turkey and Iran on Tuesday vowed to continue their cooperation to ”eliminate terrorists” in Syria, in a trilateral statement after their presidents met in Tehran.

The three countries ”reaffirmed the determination to continue their ongoing cooperation in order to ultimately eliminate terrorist individuals, groups, undertakings and entities,” the statement read.

They ”expressed their opposition to the illegal seizure and transfer of oil revenues that should belong to Syria”.

They also ”rejected all attempts to create new realities on the ground under the pretext of combating terrorism, including illegitimate self-rule initiatives, and expressed their determination to stand against separatist agendas” in Syria. […]

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had however told the Turkish leader in a pre-summit meeting that a new Turkish offensive against the Kurds in Syria would be ”detrimental” for the region. He called for the issue to be resolved through dialogue between Ankara, Damascus, Moscow and Tehran.

Läs artikel

Austrian Chancellor affirms non-adhesion to NATO, plenglish.com

The Austrian Chancellor, Karl Nehammer, affirmed that his country will not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to television in this capital.

According to Nehammer, Austria will not follow the example of Sweden and Finland, which have revised their neutrality and are now trying to join the Atlantic alliance. The nation is committed to a joint international and security policy with the European Union, and plans to invest more in its own defense, the Austrian Chancellor stressed.

After Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military operation on February 24 in response to the call of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics, Finland and Sweden rethought their traditional policy of neutrality. Läs artikel

Earthling: Was Obama right about Russia-Ukraine? nonzero.substack.com

[…] The Times article was about Obama’s refusal, in the face of bipartisan pressure, to send arms to Ukraine. Obama, the Times reported, “has told aides and visitors that arming the Ukrainians would encourage the notion that they could actually defeat the far more powerful Russians, and so it would potentially draw a more forceful response from Moscow.”

An anonymous source paraphrased Obama as asking questions like, “Okay, what happens if we send in equipment – do we have to send in trainers?” And, “What if it ends up in the hands of thugs? What if Putin escalates?” In the absence of satisfactory answers, Obama confined aid to things like helmets and night vision goggles.

After he left office, Washington reversed course and sent lethal military aid to Ukraine—billions of dollars worth. And, to answer Obama’s questions: Yes, that turned out to involve sending trainers to Ukraine—as well as conducting NATO-Ukraine military exercises on Russia’s doorstep; and yes, Putin escalated. This doesn’t mean that the former caused the latter, but the sequence of events leaves that possibility quite open. Läs artikel

NATO bases, not Finland’s entry to bloc, threat to Russia, says ambassador, tass.com

Finland’s official accession to NATO is no direct threat to Russia, however, there is concern about the deployment of the alliance’s infrastructure and heavy weapons there, Russian Ambassador to Finland Pavel Kuznetsov told the Rossiya-24 television on Monday.

”Finland’s formal accession to NATO poses no serious threat to Russia’s security. However, there is concern that NATO may station its permanent military bases or heavy offensive weapons and missile defense systems in Finland. Russia will then have to take appropriate measures in response in order to ensure its security,” he warned.

The Russian diplomat said he expected Finland’s political and military leadership ”to understand only too well that developments like these would not be in Finland’s best interests.” However, he questioned if the Finns would be allowed to make independent decisions on their own security as a nation upon entry to NATO. Läs artikel

On Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, tccb.gov.tr

Delivering remarks following the Presidential Cabinet Meeting, President Erdoğan drew attention to Türkiye’s conditional approval to Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, and said: “Let me reiterate that we will freeze the process if they do not take the necessary steps to fulfill our conditions.”

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivered remarks at a press conference following the Presidential Cabinet Meeting at the Presidential Complex.

Touching upon his recent visit to Spain for the NATO Leaders Summit, President Erdoğan said Türkiye’s approaches towards regional and global crises were voiced at the highest level at the Summit which he underlined was held at an important period due to the Ukraine-Russia war, and added: “We displayed a quite open and clear stance that NATO’s expansion policies should be maintained in line with our country’s sensitivities. Once the conditions we had brought to the table for the start of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership process were agreed, we shared our conditional approval with member countries.”

“Let me reiterate that we will freeze the process if they do not take the necessary steps to fulfill our conditions,” President Erdoğan underscored, and noted: “Sweden, in particular, has not been displaying a positive image on this issue. Our stance as Türkiye is crystal clear on this issue, the rest is up to them.”Läs artikel

The Corners of the Multipolar World Order, theamericanconservative.com

[…] The BRICS nations account for more than 40 percent of the Earth’s population. Their collective GDP amounts to 25 percent of global GDP ($21 trillion), and the nations’ share in world trade was close to 20 percent ($6.7 trillion) in 2020. It should be obvious that BRICS is a force to be reckoned with. The dominant position of the Western powers is eroding. In contrast, powers like China and India have come to the fore, making the global decision-making elite less Western and ideologically more diverse.

As Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rightly noted, “the growing weight of the emerging economies in the world requires a proper representation.” This process is organic and irreversible. It is represents an order in which the U.N. and G20 are given preference over NATO and the G7 group. The BRICS nations are laying the foundations of a multipolar world order that is genuinely democratic, where states act as sovereign entities co-managing the international system through international law rather than under a hegemonic “rules-based order.” Läs artikel

EU: Vi måste hålla ut, svd.se

Klartecken gavs för ytterligare 500 miljoner euro i vapenstöd till Ukraina vid EU-ländernas utrikesministermöte i Bryssel på måndagen. Där fick de närvarande också än en gång lyssna till sin ukrainske kollega Dmytro Kuleba, som deltog digitalt.

– Som väntat hade han en väldigt stark plädering för fortsatt stöd till Ukraina. Han talade naturligtvis om de fortsatta brotten som Ukraina utsätts för, senaste dagarnas terrorbombningar till exempel. Han förmedlade väldigt tydligt att Ukraina kommer att fortsätta att kämpa mot den här aggressionen – men man kan inte göra det ensamt, berättar kabinettssekreterare Robert Rydberg, som vikarierade för utrikesminister Ann Linde (S) vid mötet. Läs artikel

Robot 57 – stridsvagnarnas skräck, forsvarsmakten.se

Bilderna på totalförstörda stridsvagnar från krigets Ukraina har fått en hel värld att fråga vad för vapen som ligger bakom. Svaret är Robot 57, eller NLAW (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon), som det internationella namnet lyder. […]

Robot 57 ser ut som ett mer bulligt pansarskott, men är en mycket mer avancerad konstruktion. Den kan avfyras av en enskild soldat och kastas bort efter användning, men där slutar likheterna.

Skytten som avfyrar vapnet kan ställa in på vilket avstånd robotens verkansdel ska armeras vid; 20 eller 100 meter. Det finns också två alternativ för hur banan roboten tar mot målet ska se ut. Det ena läget ger en bana rakt mot målet, det andra skickar iväg verkansdelen så att den slår in i målet uppifrån, vilket gör att den kan slå ut stridsvagnar som har tunnare pansar på ovansidan. Läs pressmeddelandee

Proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter, atlanticcouncil.org

C. Anthony Pfaff, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the research professor for strategy

In late April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO of waging a “proxy” war against Russia by supporting Ukraine as it defended itself from a Kremlin invasion. “War means war,” he said ominously, implying that the Alliance is stoking Ukraine’s resistance to advance its own interests.

It is easy to dismiss Lavrov’s claim as another product of Kremlin myth-making, and in reality, Ukraine’s status as a proxy for the United States and NATO may be a matter of interpretation. Yet there is a kernel of truth to it: The Alliance is now engaged in a Cold War-style engagement with Moscow, in which both NATO and its Ukrainian partner risk pursuing their interests possibly at the unjust expense of each other.

That the United States’, much less NATO’s, military support for Kyiv raises ethical concerns is no surprise; states rarely provide military assistance to other parties unless their interests are also served. But even well-intentioned pursuits—in this case, helping a strategic ally beat back a stronger aggressor—can end poorly. Läs artikel