U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress aircraft, Airmen and support equipment from the 5th Bomb Wing, Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, arrived in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility to train with U.S. Allies and partners on August 18, 2022.

The aircraft will operate out of RAF Fairford, England. The deployment of strategic bombers to the U.K. helps exercise RAF Fairford as United States Air Forces in Europe’s (USAFE) forward operating location for bombers.

“These Bomber Task Force missions across Europe provide a great opportunity to improve our combined readiness, promote interoperability and demonstrate our global power projection alongside our Allies,” said U.S. Air Force Gen. James Hecker, USAFE-AFAFRICA and AIRCOM commander. “Our ultimate strength in the European area of operations is a joint-force lethality – our ability to train and operate with our Allies and partners as one layered, capable and credible combat team.” […]

“Witnessing our nation’s Gripen fighter aircraft flying alongside several of America’s most powerful military aircraft visually depicts the strength and solidarity of NATO,” said Maj. Gen. Carl-Johan Edström, commander of the Swedish Air Force. “These moments truly capture the military power that exists within NATO – as individual nations, but, more importantly, as a unified Alliance.” Läs artikel

More than 10 warships and submarines are at sea, including “Pyotr Velikye”, the Northern Fleet’s large nuclear-powered battle cruiser, the press service in Severomorsk informs.

The naval vessels are supported by the air force and coast air defense units.

Exercise scenario, according to the navy headquarters, is deterring an enemy attack on Russia from the Barents Sea, as well as repelling attacks on the country’s Arctic islands. […]

Russia has over the last decade rearmed its Arctic archipelagos with new runways for heavy military planes and fighter jets and established missile defense systems aimed at ensuring access and control over the Northern Sea Route. Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya are both strategically important for protection of the bastion defense of the Barents Sea region, including the nuclear arsenal and second-strike capabilities. Läs artikel

USA hadde ingen doktriner for opprørsbekjempelse (COIN) da operasjonene i Afghanistan og Irak startet. Mens krigene pågikk ble det, til tross for stor uenighet, innført en slik doktrine i 2007. Krigene førte også til både endringer i organisering og utrustning av amerikanske styrker, og til store endringer av planlagte investeringer av militært ustyr. Begge krigene endte i nederlag, og i tiden etter har USA på ny fokusert på stormaktsrivalisering. Men utgiftene til krigføringen i Afghanistan og Irak, og endringene i investeringsmønster, har svekket USAs evne til å konkurrere militært med Kina og Russland. […]

Det er vanlig å bruke det store amerikanske forsvarsbudsjettet som et bevis på USAs militære styrke.Det vises til at USA brukte mer på forsvaret i 2021 enn de neste ni stormaktene til sammen. Tallene viser størrelsen på budsjettene i nominelle dollar. Kina og Russland betaler soldatenes lønn og materiell de selv produserer i lokal valuta, ikke i dollar. […]

Om man bruker disse forholdstallene på forsvarsutgiftene, som SIPRI oppga til henholdsvis 61 og 250 milliarder dollar i 2019, blir Russlands reelle forsvarsutgifter 162 milliarder og Kinas 483 milliarder dollar. I 2019 var USAs forsvarbudsjett på 649 milliarder dollar, og målt i kjøpekraft brukte Russland og Kina 645 milliarder. Metodikken er grov, men siden både Kina og Russland er militært selvforsynte og betaler for dette i lokal valuta, gir den antakelig et mye riktigere bilde enn de nominelle tallene. I så fall bruker Kina og Russland til sammen omtrent like mange penger på militære formål som USA (Ulriksen, 2021).

Endringene i styrkeforholdet blir mer dramatisk om man ser på hvordan pengene har blitt brukt. Pentagon brukte til sammen rundt 2000 milliarder dollar på krigen i Afghanistan/Pakistan og Irak/Syria. Når andre kostnader tas med, som sosial støtte til soldater som har blitt invalidisert, blir tallene minst tredoblet.

Operasjonene i Afghanistan og Irak endte i nederlag. Det er mulig at begge operasjonene ville fått andre utfall om doktrinen fra 2007 og erkjennelsen fra 2010 hadde vært innbakt i amerikansk tenking da de startet. Men begge deler kom altfor sent. Likevel førte krigene til store endringer i det amerikanske forsvaret, både fordi de krevde bestemte typer styrker og fordi kostnadene delvis ble dekket av store kutt i investeringer i materiell som ikke var relevante i COIN. Läs artikel

[…] The agreement among Washington and European capitals seems to be that Kiev will decide how long to fight and for what objective, that nothing will be decided about Ukraine without Ukraine in the room, and that whatever Kiev believes to be necessary will be provided by the U.S. and Europe.

But Washington’s responsibility is to make policy in the interests of the American people. Washington should not turn those decisions over to another government, but unfortunately, it does so frequently. In the late 1980s, for example, ethnic Albanians successfully lobbied to drag the U.S. into the guerrilla war raging in Kosovo, then part of Serbia. During the 1990s, Americans of Eastern European descent spurred the disastrous policy of expanding NATO up to Russia’s borders, violating numerous assurances made to Moscow. President Joe Biden’s recent trip to the Middle East demonstrated that Democrats as well as Republicans are willing to allow Saudi Arabia and Israel to control U.S. policy in the region. […]

Unsurprisingly, Kiev has embraced virtually every other proposed American involvement, including admitting Ukraine to NATO. The reason Ukraine is not in the alliance now is U.S. officials recognized Kiev’s status was not important to America’s future, and certainly did not qualify as a vital interest warranting potential war with a nuclear-armed power. Against the wishes of virtually the entire NATO membership, the George W. Bush administration initially promised Ukraine membership, demonstrating that its wild recklessness did not end with the invasion of Iraq. Subsequent administrations took a more responsible position. […]

It is difficult to assess the charges and counterclaims made in any conflict. The energy of Ukraine’s propaganda operation, determined to eradicate any questions about Kiev’s behavior, is no surprise. However, U.S. and allied policymakers must resist Ukraine’s attempt to replace unpleasant facts with comfortable fantasies. Washington needs the best information possible to protect the American people. They, not the Zelensky government, should be the Biden administration’s top priority. Läs artikel

Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus about the war in Ukraine: the conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually a weakened Russia will accept a peace agreement that favors the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Ukraine. Although officials recognize that both Washington and Moscow may escalate to gain an advantage or to prevent defeat, they assume that catastrophic escalation can be avoided. Few imagine that U.S. forces will become directly involved in the fighting or that Russia will dare use nuclear weapons.

Washington and its allies are being much too cavalier. Although disastrous escalation may be avoided, the warring parties’ ability to manage that danger is far from certain. The risk of it is substantially greater than the conventional wisdom holds. And given that the consequences of escalation could include a major war in Europe and possibly even nuclear annihilation, there is good reason for extra concern. Läs artikel

[…] However, Austria continues to sit on the fence and Vienna has no plans to join NATO despite the ongoing war.

Austria, a European Union (EU) member, partners with NATO in various capacities and the country has become more integrated into the EU’s security framework. In this context, some analysts label Austria as essentially a free rider, simply surviving by luck while remaining outside of NATO. Nearly six months into the Ukrainian crisis, there is no serious debate in Austria about officially joining NATO.

Eighty percent of Austrians support staying out of the Western alliance while the spirit of neutrality remains popular among Austrian politicians across the spectrum.

On March 7, Chancellor Karl Nehammer, a conservative politician, tweeted that Austrian neutrality is “not up for debate” and the leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO), Pamela Rendi-Wagner, frequently calls Vienna’s neutrality “non-negotiable.”

The right-wing Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) has the same pro-neutrality position and so does the pacifist Green Party. […]

Vienna – along with New York, Geneva, and Nairobi – has become a key office site of the UN, as well as the location for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). […]

Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said that Vienna is “helping [Ukraine] on a large scale but not with war munition and I think help for Ukraine cannot only be reduced to war munition.”

Along with 140 other UN member-states, Austria voted in favour of the March 2 General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion. […]

Worried about Austria’s exposure to Moscow’s ability to weaponise its energy exports, Vienna has joined fellow EU members in working to diversify gas sources away from Russia.

Since the war began, Austria has reduced the percentage of its Russia-sourced gas imports from 80 to 50 percent. Läs artikel

Whose side are you really on?

That’s the question that’s bound to loom large in the mind of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he meets his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Lviv on Thursday. Of all the members of the NATO alliance, Erdoğan is easily the most slippery in terms of his allegiances.

On the one hand, Zelenskyy has grounds to thank the Turkish leader. Erdoğan is trying to present himself as a neutral power broker on the Black Sea, mediating between Russia and Ukraine to allow grain exports to resume out of blockaded ports. A Turkish company — one of whose executives is Erdoğan’s son-in-law — is the supplier of the Bayraktar drones that have given Ukrainian forces a decisive boost on the battlefield, to the fury of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdoğan has also closed the Black Sea to Russian naval reinforcements through the Bosphorus.

On the other hand, Turkey is facing accusations of being a war profiteer, or rather what sanctions experts call a ”black knight” — a nation that helps in the evasion of international embargoes for its own benefit. A surge in Turkey-Russia trade and the adoption of a Russian payment system by Turkish banks since the outbreak of the war has triggered speculation that Ankara has spotted the advantages of giving Moscow a helping hand as its own mismanaged and inflation-crippled economy lurches out of control. Läs artikel

Svenska staten vill stötta Turkiet i ett strategiskt järnvägsprojekt värt flera miljarder.

Det turkiska byggbolaget kopplas till både Erdogan och kretsen kring Putin och har upprepat anklagats för korruption.

Trots att den ansvariga svenska myndigheten identifierat en rad risker med projektet har Sverige gett grönt ljus, visar DN:s granskning.

Regeringen förnekar samband med Natoförhandlingarna.

Under våren 2021 landade en ansökan om finansiellt stöd på den svenska myndigheten Exportkreditnämndens bord. Ansökan kom direkt från den turkiska staten och gäller bygget av en höghastighetsjärnväg mellan städerna Gaziantep och den strategiskt viktiga hamnstaden Mersin.

EKN har strikta riktlinjer och har uttryckligen som mål att främja miljö, mänskliga rättigheter och att motverka korruption. Myndigheten har bedömt att stora delar kring det turkiska projektet ska hållas hemligt och beskriver det som ”affärskänsligt”. När DN begär ut dokumentationen framgår det inte vilka summor det rör sig om. Men officiella siffror från turkiska finansdepartementet visar på omfattningen av Sveriges garanti: närmare tre miljarder svenska kronor.

I utbyte förväntas 30 procent av det svenska garantibeloppet gå till att köpa svenska varor och tjänster för att bygga järnvägssträckan. Det byggbolag som står för konstruktionen i Turkiet heter REC – och ingår i koncernen Rönesans. […]

I april i år gick internationella organisationen Turkish Democracy Project, som kritiserar regimen i Turkiet, ut och varnade en amerikansk byggjätte för allt samröre med just Rönesans.

– Bolagen som Sverige avser stödja är kända för korruption och skatteflykt i miljardklassen. Det är uppenbart korruption på högsta nivå med band till kleptokratin i både Turkiet och Ryssland. Om det finns kännedom om detta hos våra svenska beslutsfattare, men att man ändå väljer att blunda, är det oerhört allvarligt, säger Louise Brown, antikorruptionsexpert med bakgrund på Transparency International och på Världsbanken. […]

Den 6 juni gav Exportkreditnämnden grönt ljus till att stödja järnvägsprojektet.

En månad senare undertecknade Turkiet och samtliga andra Natoländer anslutningsprotokollet för Sverige, det första steget mot ett svenskt medlemskap. Om Natoprocessen haft någon betydelse för EKN:s beslut vill myndigheten inte svara på. Läs artikel

Kinas forsvarsdepartement bekrefter overfor Reuters at de sender kinesiske tropper til Russland for å delta i en felles militærøvelse.

De kinesiske troppene skal delta på en «Vostok»-øvelse, sammen med Russland, India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tadsjikistan og andre land, ifølge departementet.

Deltagelsen er «ikke relatert til den nåværende internasjonale og regionale situasjonen», heter det i en uttelse fra det kinesiske forsvaret. 

General og tidligere forsvarssjef Sverre Diesen sier til TV 2 at øvelsen ikke har noen betydning.

– Dette er noe som har vært gjort tidligere også. Øvelsene mellom Kina, Russland og andre sentral-asiatiske land har vært gjennomført før. Så man kan ikke tolke det som noe annet enn det det er.

Den siste lignende øvelsen fant sted i 2018. Det var også første gang Kina deltok. Läs artikel